Brent breaks $92 as a second oil supply shock begins to unfold

Oil prices climbed on Wednesday as the risk of disruption spread across two of the world’s most important energy corridors, pushing Brent above $92 a barrel and WTI towards $85.

Brent futures rose 1.1% to $92.01, while West Texas Intermediate gained 1% to $85.16.

The advance extended a five-week high reached on Tuesday as continued US-Iran strikes, Houthi threats in the Red Sea and fresh disruption at a Black Sea export terminal tightened the market’s focus on supply security.

The rally remains driven largely by geopolitical risk rather than evidence of a lasting physical shortage, leaving crude vulnerable to sharp reversals if shipping conditions improve.

Two chokepoints reshape the supply calculus

The immediate concern is that pressure on the Strait of Hormuz is being compounded by a new threat around Bab el-Mandeb.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis have declared a maritime embargo against Saudi-linked shipping, prompting three tankers carrying Saudi crude towards Asia to reverse course.

Bab el-Mandeb handled about 5.4 million barrels a day of oil in the first quarter, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Disruption there would force more vessels around southern Africa, extending journey times and lifting freight and insurance costs.

At the same time, constrained traffic through Hormuz continues to threaten exports from Gulf producers.

Supply anxiety has also widened beyond the Middle East.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium temporarily halted oil intake from Kazakhstan after drone attacks on tankers near its Black Sea terminal, raising the risk of production curbs if loadings remain disrupted.

Inventories provide the demand reality check

The next test comes from US stockpile data.

Figures from the American Petroleum Institute indicated commercial crude inventories unexpectedly rose by about 2.6 million barrels last week, against expectations for a draw.

Gasoline stocks declined, offering a more supportive signal for summer fuel demand.

The EIA’s official report is due at 10:30 am in Washington. Confirmation of a large crude build could temper the rally, particularly if refinery demand weakens.

A draw, however, would reinforce the argument that the market has limited capacity to absorb further transport disruption.

The rally meets resistance near $86

WTI is approaching the $85-$86 area, making that range the first significant test for the latest advance.

A sustained break could strengthen short-term momentum, while failure to hold above $84 would bring the psychological $80 level back into focus.

The longer-term backdrop remains less bullish.

The EIA expects global inventories to rebuild as trade flows recover and supply growth outpaces consumption, forecasting Brent to average about $70 in the fourth quarter.

For now, geopolitics has control.

Yet the durability of the move will depend on whether threats to shipping translate into measurable losses of crude supply rather than longer voyages and higher costs alone.