Råvareoversikt: WTI opp 11% etter Trumps eskalering i Midtøsten; gull faller

Oil prices experienced significant volatility on Thursday as US crude saw a jump of over 11%, while Brent crude rose by 7%. 

Denne oppgangen ble drevet av handelsaktørers bekymring for potensielle langsiktige forstyrrelser i oljetilførselen, etter USAs president Donald Trumps kunngjøring om at Washington ville fortsette angrepene mot Iran.

Gold prices fell sharply as energy prices surged and the dollar rose against a basket of major currencies, limiting demand for the precious metals. 

Prisene på basemetaller trakk seg også tilbake etter at Donald Trump sa han ville slå Iran «ekstremt hardt» i løpet av de neste to til tre ukene.

At the time of writing, the three-month copper contract was at $12,339.60 per ton, down 0.9%, while the aluminium contract was at $3,466.90 per ton, down 1.6% from the previous close. 

WTI jumps 11%

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices surged by over 11% on Thursday, marking a sharp rebound following two days of losses. 

This increase was driven by renewed uncertainty in energy markets after US President Donald Trump threatened a further escalation of the conflict with Iran.

The price of WTI, typically lower than Brent crude, recently exceeded it, commanding a premium of nearly $3, the highest premium for US crude futures over the global benchmark in a year. 

Despite this, both oil benchmarks are still trading below the highs of nearly $120 a barrel reached earlier in the conflict.

The WTI contract was at $110.68 a barrel, up 10.6%, while Brent was 6.1% higher at $107.25 a barrel.

Trump announced that the US plans to strike Iran "extremely hard" within the next two to three weeks, specifically threatening to target "each and every one" of the country's power plants. 

He further asserted that the Strait of Hormuz would "naturally" reopen once the conflict concludes, though he failed to provide specifics or a definite timeline for this to occur.

Trump further announced a significant intensification of military operations, stating, "We're going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks," and threatening to "bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong." 

However, he failed to outline any steps towards ending the hostilities or detail any measures that might lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy shipment route that dozens of countries are seeking to restore.

Meanwhile, Britain is hosting a virtual meeting of about 40 nations to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz; the US will not attend. 

The Strait's closure has halted dealings based on the Dubai Middle East benchmark, which typically values nearly a fifth of global crude. 

OPEC+ is expected to consider a further output increase on Sunday, preparing to add barrels if the Strait reopens, but this won't boost supply sooner.

Selv om skipsfart gjennom Hormuz-stredet gjenopptas, vil en tilbakevending til markedsforholdene før krigen sannsynligvis gå sakte, ettersom oppstrøms produksjon må starte på nytt, logistikk må normaliseres og lagernivåer må bygges opp igjen.

Gold slips

Gold prices dropped on Thursday due to an increase in the US dollar and a rise in oil prices.

Investors sought the safety of the US dollar amid escalating tensions, driven by Trump's strong warnings that Iran faced being "hit extremely hard" within the next two to three weeks. 

Trump further diminished hopes for a quick de-escalation by stating that a ceasefire would not be possible until the Strait of Hormuz was "open, free and clear."

“This weighed on gold, although it has managed to poke its nose back above $4,600,” said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. 

“Rising US Treasury yields also contributed to gold’s decline by encouraging flows away from non-yielding assets.”

Near-term gold price action is expected to be primarily influenced by Middle East developments, overriding the usual focus on upcoming events like Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report.

Gold's status as an inflation hedge is undermined when interest rates are high because it offers no yield. This vulnerability has been evident recently, with spot gold falling 12% since the Iran conflict began on February 28.

Investor sentiment was further negatively impacted by news concerning the Turkish central bank's gold reserves. 

Authorities there sought to mitigate market fallout from the war, leading to a significant reduction in reserves. Specifically, the central bank's holdings dropped by 69.1 metric tons last week, bringing the total decline over the last two weeks to more than 118 tons, resulting in current reserves of 702.5 tons.

In Asian markets, the softer prices spurred demand in India, where gold traded at a premium for the first time in two months. Conversely, premiums in China saw a slight decrease as buyers appeared to be waiting for a deeper price correction.

The COMEX gold contract was last at $4,686.40 per ounce, down 2.6%, while silver was at $72.485 an ounce, down 4.8% from the previous close. 

“Silver is now retesting a band of support which starts around $70 and stretches down to $68,” Morrison said. 

Hvis det skulle legge inn et langvarig brudd under dette nivået, vil det øke risikoen for et dypere fall tilbake mot $60 per unse.