Nvidia-sjef kaller $1.3T chipsalg en kjøpsmulighet — bør investorer høre etter?

US semiconductor stocks began recovering on Monday after suffering a brutal selloff on Friday that wiped roughly $1.3 trillion from the sector's value, as investors debated whether the decline marked a healthy correction or the start of a deeper downturn for one of Wall Street's strongest trades.

The sharp decline was triggered by a combination of Broadcom's underwhelming outlook and a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which fuelled concerns that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer or even consider additional tightening.

The technology-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 4.2% on Friday, marking its steepest one-day decline in months, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 10%, its worst session since March 2020.

Semiconductor names bounce back as Huang reassures investors

By Monday, however, some of the sector's biggest names were showing signs of recovery.

Nasdaq futures climbed more than 1.5% in premarket trading, while several semiconductor stocks rebounded sharply from Friday's losses.

Micron Technology rose about 8% in premarket trading after plunging 14% during Friday's session.

NVIDIA gained nearly 3%, while Advanced Micro Devices advanced around 4%.

The recovery suggested investors may be viewing the selloff as a temporary reset rather than a fundamental shift in the outlook for artificial intelligence-related spending.

Some of Monday's optimism appeared tied to comments from Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang, who sought to reassure investors that the long-term AI story remains intact despite recent market turbulence.

Speaking in Seoul, South Korea, Huang described the market decline as an opportunity rather than a reason for concern.

"We're at the beginning of it, and whatever happened to the stock market, you should be very happy because now you can buy at a discount," Huang said, referring to the broader artificial intelligence opportunity.

Analysts remain constructive on AI demand

Several market strategists echoed Huang's optimism, arguing that the underlying drivers of the AI boom remain firmly in place.

UBS Global Wealth Management's chief investment officer Mark Haefele said the recent volatility had not altered the broader investment case for technology stocks.

"Despite renewed anxiety over rates, equity issuance, and geopolitics, we expect the rally to resume," Haefele wrote.

According to UBS, strong corporate fundamentals continue to support equity markets, particularly within technology.

The firm expects spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and applications to remain elevated as businesses increasingly adopt the technology.

Haefele also argued that investors may be overstating the likelihood of aggressive monetary tightening from central banks, a concern that has weighed heavily on growth stocks in recent sessions.

Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of technology shares because they lower the present value of future earnings.

Historical data suggests resilience

Some analysts point to market history as a reason for optimism.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG.com, noted that the S&P 500 recently surged more than 19% in the two months following its late-March lows, a rare occurrence in market history.

"The S&P 500 recently posted a gain of more than 19% over two months off the late March lows. According to Carson Investment Research data going back to 1950, that has only happened seven times before, and on every single occasion, the index was higher one month, three months, six months, and twelve months later," Beauchamp said.

He added that the average return one year after similar signals exceeded 40%, with a 100% historical success rate.

The earnings backdrop also remains supportive, according to Beauchamp.

S&P 500 earnings per share are projected to grow roughly 23% in 2026, a pace achieved only a handful of times in recent decades.

Historically, years with earnings growth above 20% have generally coincided with strong equity-market performance.

Volatility is likely a healthy pause, but 2018 remains a cautionary comparison

Despite the optimistic outlook, Beauchamp cautioned that risks remain.

The primary concern is that markets could face a scenario similar to 2018, when the Federal Reserve continued raising interest rates despite strong economic growth, ultimately contributing to a market downturn.

"The sole exception was 2018, when the Fed was hiking aggressively into late-cycle strength. The 2018 analogy is clearly the risk scenario traders are now stress-testing," Beauchamp said.

He added that while historical evidence favors the view that the latest decline represents a temporary pause within a broader bull market, investors should not dismiss the possibility of a more prolonged correction.

"Whether this week's volatility is the beginning of something more damaging, or simply the healthy pause that strong rallies require, is genuinely uncertain. The weight of historical evidence points firmly toward the latter," he said.

"But the 2018 playbook is close enough to current conditions that it cannot be dismissed, and traders should be sizing their positions accordingly rather than assuming history will rhyme neatly," he concluded.