S&P 500 could fall to 6,150: analyst explains how to play the dip

US stocks are bracing for a week of “maximum uncertainty” as the Iran war reaches a boiling point.

Julian Emanuel, a senior Evercore ISI expert, warns that the benchmark S&P 500 index could sink further to 6,150 next week – slipping officially into the “correction” territory.

Why? Because on April 6, President Donald Trump is expected to lift the pause on targeting Iranian energy infrastructure.

And while higher oil prices often inflict “lasting damage” to the economy, Emanuel believes we’re just days away from an “inflection point” that may represent a strategic opportunity for disciplined investors.

Emanuel recommends buying the dip

When the market hits a vein of “irrational” volatility, the smartest move is to put some cash to use, Emanuel said in a CNBC interview this week.

Instead of fearing a drop to 6,150, he views it as a prime entry point for those seeking “long-term” gains.

“It would almost be irrational to say that it’s not a possibility,” Emanuel said during an appearance on CNBC, emphasizing that the projected dip would be a “buying opportunity”.

The Evercore ISI analyst recommended focusing on high-quality assets at a discount, particularly within the large-cap tech space.

On “Fast Money”, he noted that the Nasdaq 100’s price to earnings (P/E) ratio is relatively “low” heading into April compared to the SPX – a valuation gap not seen since the pandemic.

For Emanuel, the “AI trade” remains the ultimate prize, as these firms boast “very visible earnings streams” that can withstand an economic slowdown.

Why is Emanuel keeping bullish on US stocks?

Emanuel’s bullish view in the face of chaos isn’t just optimism – it’s rooted in historical parallels.

He compares the current market anxiety to last year’s “tariff tantrum”, where investors fled stocks due to concerns of an all-out trade war.  

During that period of “peak uncertainty” last March, Emanuel issued a similar call to resist “tariff angst” and accumulate shares.

By May, the benchmark index had completely erased its losses and embarked on a powerful rally.

According to the Evercore ISI analyst, a “policy breakthrough” on Iran may trigger a similar “tariff pivot” effect, where the resolution of geopolitical dread acts as a coiled spring for stock prices.

By identifying the exact moment of maximum fear, Emanuel has successfully guided investors to pounce while others are retreating – turning short-term panic into long-term portfolio growth.

How high could S&P 500 realistically climb in 2026

Despite the immediate threat of a “crash” to 6,150, the broader outlook remains remarkably bright for the Evercore ISI team.

Emanuel maintains a year-end target of 7,750 for the benchmark S&P 500 index – representing a staggering 22% rally from Monday’s closing price.

The logic is simple: while high energy costs are a headwind, the fundamental earnings power of the tech sector remains the market’s bedrock.

For investors who can stomach 3% downside and dip a toe into the struggling AI and tech names, the rewards by December could be notable.