Can PI rally to $0.20 as bulls defend crucial EMA level?

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) have all retraced after hitting key resistance levels on Sunday.

The broader cryptocurrency market has opened the new weekly candle bearish despite the market sentiment turning positive.

The crypto market capitalization rose to $2.64 trillion in the early hours of Monday but quickly retreated to the $2.60 trillion level that has held steady over the past five days.

The effect has spilled to other altcoins, with Pi Network (PI) also affected by the current market conditions.

PI is trading just below $0.1800 at press time on Monday, holding above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.1768 after Sunday's 5% recovery.

The three-day recovery for PI aligned with a two-day pause in mainnet migration, which eased the headwinds. 

The momentum indicators for PI remain cautiously bullish, with the price testing a potential down-channel breakout.

PI surges as mainnet migration hits pause

PI recorded gains last week following two weeks of persistent selling pressure from investors.

The selloff was triggered by the mainnet token migration, which enables PI token holders, commonly referred to as Pioneers. 

According to PiScan, a two-day pause in the mainnet migration aligned with Sunday's 5% recovery as the headwinds eased.

Despite the current dip, the sentiment index has risen to 47, entering neutral territory and reaching its highest level since the second half of January. 

Since August 2025, the indicator has spent no more than a few consecutive days above 50, the first sign of a bear market. 

In the near term, approaching the neutral level could increase the risk of a fresh wave of selling. 

With the US Dollar facing selling pressure in the near term, this could allow major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin and PI to rally higher. 

Bulls continue to face resistance

The PI/USD 4-hour chart is bullish and efficient as PI has held the $0.17200 support level in the near term. 

Currently, PI is edging lower as the overhead trendline of a downward channel caps Sunday's recovery.

It has pushed its price back above the 50-day EMA at $0.1768, tilting the near-term tone toward a modestly constructive bias.

The momentum indicators suggest that the bulls remain in control.

The positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram widens as the MACD and signal line rise toward the zero line.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64 on the 4-hour chart rises without signaling overbought conditions, suggesting buyers are gradually regaining control.

If the rally resumes, initial resistance will be met at the downward trendline at $0.1841.

A daily close above this level would open the way for a more meaningful recovery toward the $0.2000 psychological level. 

The 200-day EMA at $0.2446 could also serve as another major resistance level in the medium term. 

On the downside, the 50-day EMA at $0.1768 offers immediate support.

Failure to defend this level would signal fading bullish momentum and expose a deeper pullback within the prevailing longer-term downtrend.