Will the Scottish Mortgage shares rise? SpaceX and Anthropic may hold the answer

Scottish Mortgage (LON: SMT) share price remained steady and broke above a key resistance level this week as investors looked ahead to the potential IPOs of SpaceX and Anthropic, two high-profile private companies in which the trust holds significant stakes. The stock climbed to a high of 1,533p, marking a gain of more than 154% from its 2024 low.

Scottish Mortgage share price jumps amid the AI boom

Scottish Mortgage’s name is a weird one for two main reasons: it is neither a mortgage company nor does it have a major exposure in the Scottish economy. Instead, it is one of the biggest technology investors in Europe, with a portfolio worth over 16 billion pounds or $22 billion. 

The stock has jumped sharply in the past few months as its biggest publicly traded companies surged. This includes popular names like Amazon, NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductor, Meta Platforms, and ASML. 

The most important catalyst for the company is the upcoming SpaceX IPO, which is set to happen next week. This will be the biggest IPO ever as the company will raise $75 billion at a $1.76 billion valuation. 

Polymarket traders believe that the company will achieve a higher valuation than that. Most traders believe that it will become a $2 trillion company shortly after going public, a move that will benefit companies that invested in it a few years ago like Scottish Mortgage. 

The other main catalyst is that Anthropic announced that it was going public, a move that could see it valued at over $1.8 trillion. This is notable as the company recently raised funds at a $900 billion valuation, a few months after it raised at a $350 billion valuation. Anthropic now accounts for 2.6% of Scottish Mortgage’s business. 

SMT stock faces major risks

Still, Scottish Mortgage faces some potential risks. For one, there are valuation concerns about SpaceX as its results showed that it made a big loss last year. It is also not growing fast enough to justify the valuation. Indeed, Morningstar recently warned that the real valuation could be worth about $975 billion.

The other risk is that the stock may pop after the IPO and then retreat as investors book profits. This is a situation that has happened to most newly launched IPOs. 

For example, the Medline stock price surged above $50 and then retreated to the current $34. Verisure stock jumped to $16 and then fell to the current $11. Klarna stock has plunged by over 70% from its highest point last year. This explains why many investors are turning to Jefferies to short the stock after it goes public.

The other risk is that the same situation will happen after Anthropic goes public this year.

Meanwhile, there is also a risk that the top AI stocks that have surged recently will turn around and reverse as investors start booking profits.

Scottish Mortgage shares technical analysis

SMT stock chart | Source: TradingView

The weekly chart is sending highly bullish technicals. It formed a golden cross as the 50-week and 200-week moving averages crossed each other. Most importantly, it has formed a large multi-year cup-and-handle pattern, which is a common continuation sign in technical analysis.

It has already finished the cup section, meaning that it may retreat as it enters the handle section. This may be a mult-month pullback or consolidation. In the long-term, however, the stock will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance at 2,473p.