XRP price prediction: $1 in focus after hitting 19-month low

After reaching a peak of $3.65 in July 2025, XRP has fallen about 68.5% and now trades near $1.14, a level not seen in roughly 19 months.

The recent decline has accelerated, with XRP down 11.8% over the past week and nearly 18.9% over the last 30 days.

The sharp selloff has shifted attention to the psychologically important $1 level, which many traders now view as the next major support zone.

Whether XRP can hold above current levels may depend on broader crypto market sentiment, particularly the performance of Bitcoin, as well as the network's ability to regain momentum in areas such as tokenisation and institutional adoption.

The technical picture is not pretty

From a technical perspective, XRP has broken below the $1.27 level, which had previously served as an important support zone and now appears to be acting as overhead resistance.

Although the token rebounded from around $1.05 to $1.14, the recovery was accompanied by a roughly 44% decline in trading volume.

Analysts often view this type of price action with caution, as a rebound on falling volume can indicate limited buying conviction.

Momentum indicators also reflect the recent weakness. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 31, placing XRP in oversold territory.

While oversold readings can sometimes precede a relief rally, they can also persist during strong downtrends, meaning traders will likely look for confirmation from price action and volume before calling a durable bottom.

While the oversold condition might suggest a bounce is overdue, oversold conditions without volume confirmation do not reverse a trend; they just slow it down.

On the weekly chart, XRP is trapped inside a descending parallel channel that has capped price action since its 2025 peak.

The Aroon Down indicator is sitting near 85.71% versus an Aroon Up of just 35.71%, which shows sellers have maintained control of the trend throughout.

The daily and weekly MACD remains below zero, with the signal line above the MACD line, another sign the larger bearish structure is still intact.

The 200-day moving average, sitting at $1.6179, is now a distant ceiling, and the more immediate battle is around $1.10.

A daily close below $1.10 could push XRP toward $1.09, and a breakdown through $1.09 would open the door to sub-$1 price action.

Ali Martinez, a widely followed crypto analyst, has already flagged $0.90 as his key level to watch, describing it as a potential long-term buying opportunity if XRP reaches it.

XRP’s on-chain metrics crumble

Part of the long-term investment case for XRP has been its exposure to the growing real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation market.

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) has often been viewed as a potential platform for institutional asset management, particularly as the tokenised asset market is projected to expand significantly over the coming years.

However, several on-chain indicators have recently weakened.

According to data cited by The Motley Fool, the XRPL currently hosts about $384.5 million in tokenised assets, down 11% over the 30 days ended June 5, interrupting a prolonged period of growth.

More notably, 30-day tokenised asset transfer volume on the network has fallen 59% to roughly $54.1 million.

Lower transfer activity can reduce fee generation and capital flows, potentially weakening one of the key arguments for XRPL’s role in the tokenisation sector.

XRPL’s share of the tokenised asset market now stands at just over 1%, while competing blockchain networks continue to gain ground.

There are, however, some counterbalancing trends. The number of RWA holders on XRPL increased 275% over the same 30-day period to 105 holders, while stablecoin transfer volume on the network rose 118% to $4.5 billion.

The data suggests that capital activity on XRPL remains healthy overall, although growth is increasingly being driven by stablecoin usage rather than the tokenised asset segment that many XRP bulls have highlighted as the network’s key differentiator.

What will determine the next XRP price movement

The most immediate macro catalyst is the US CPI data due on June 10.

Hotter-than-expected inflation would likely push the Federal Reserve further away from rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and putting additional pressure on risk assets, including crypto.

XRP has already been weighed down by stronger labour market data that reduced rate-cut expectations, as well as a spike in WTI crude oil above $94 per barrel following renewed military exchanges between Iran and Israel.