Silver claws back near $58 as Hormuz oil shock keeps traders on edge

Silver is trying to steady after three days of losses, but the backdrop has turned more difficult.

The metal edged higher near $58 an ounce on Thursday as bargain hunters returned, yet renewed US-Iran tensions are keeping traders cautious.

The concern is not only the risk of another Middle East shock. It is that higher oil prices could feed inflation, support the dollar and keep the Federal Reserve from turning less restrictive.

For silver, that is a tough mix: haven demand may appear, but the rate channel still matters more.

Hormuz tensions keep oil risk alive

Spot silver traded around $58.30 an ounce in Asian hours, recovering slightly after a sharp pullback.

The move followed renewed concerns around shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, after tankers were hit and US forces launched fresh strikes on Iran.

Trump said the interim agreement with Iran was “over” and warned of further action, leaving markets worried that the conflict could again threaten energy flows.

The development came as the US revoked a licence allowing Iran to sell oil after three tankers were hit by projectiles in the strait.

Oil prices rose as traders added a fresh geopolitical risk premium.

Technicals keep silver under pressure

Silver’s chart still looks fragile despite the small rebound. XAG/USD is trading below its short-term moving averages, suggesting sellers remain in control after the recent three-day decline.

The first major hurdle sits near the $60 level. A sustained move above that zone would ease some pressure and open the door for a recovery towards $61.50 and then $63.

But until buyers reclaim those levels, rallies may continue to attract selling.

On the downside, the $57.50-$58 area is the immediate support zone. A clear break below it would weaken the recovery attempt and expose the recent lows near $55.60.

Momentum indicators are no longer deeply oversold, which means silver may still have room to fall if dollar strength or rate fears persist.

Fed split keeps traders cautious

The Fed’s June minutes showed policymakers were divided but more alert to inflation risks.

A few officials saw a case for raising rates, though the committee ultimately kept the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%.

CME FedWatch pricing also showed traders lifting the probability of a near-term rate hike after the latest escalation.

CME says its FedWatch tool tracks rate probabilities implied by 30-day Fed funds futures.

That leaves silver vulnerable. Unless oil cools or the dollar weakens, rebounds may remain shallow. For now, $58 is a stabilisation point, not a confirmed floor.