XRP risks retesting the $1.26 support amid fading retail demand

Ripple’s XRP is the worst performer among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap in the last 24 hours. 

The coin is down 1% since Monday and remains under pressure.

It could retest the lower support level of $1.26 formed on Saturday after the United States (US), in collaboration with Israel, launched attacks on Iran, killing the nation’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.

XRP faces weak retail demand

XRP has been underperforming in recent days due to declining interest from retail investors.

According to CoinGlass, XRP’s futures Open Interest (OI) has declined to $2.09 billion on Tuesday from $2.19 billion on Monday, undermining risk appetite.

The OI is at its lowest level since January 2025.

This is in contrast to the $10.94 billion hit in July, coinciding with XRP reaching $3.66, the current all-time high. 

The declining OI indicates that investors are unwilling to lean into risk and would rather close positions than open new ones.

Furthermore, institutional interest in XRP remains low despite the $2.21 million inflow into spot ETFs recorded on Friday.

According to SoSoValue, cumulative inflows totaled $9.55 million last week, bringing the net assets under management to $983 million.

XRP continues to underperform despite digital assets products recording $1 billion inflows last week, breaking a five-week outflow streak 

In its report, CoinShares stated that digital asset investment products recorded $1 billion in inflows last week, ending a five-week stretch of outflows that totalled $4.0 billion.

From a macro standpoint, it is difficult to attribute the shift in sentiment to a single catalyst. 

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Momentum indicators remain bearish for XRP

Similar to Bitcoin and Ether, XRP’s 4-hour chart remains bearish as it is trading round $1.35, well below the 50, 100, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), between $1.58 and $2.05.

The three moving averages are declining, keeping the broader trend under pressure despite recent recovery from the Saturday low of $1.26.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the signal line on the 4-hour chart, suggesting mild bearish momentum.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 is below the neutral zone, reinforcing the view that sellers still retain an edge even as downside momentum has eased.

The bulls have failed to push past the immediate resistance at $1.40, where recent candles have not broken above the descending trendline. 

XRP could also encounter further upside hurdles in the near term, with the 50-day EMA at $1.59.

A daily close above the 50-day EMA would ease medium-term bearish pressure and allow the bulls to push toward the 100-day EMA at $1.81.

If the $1.26 support level fails to hold and the daily candle closes bearish, XRP would be exposed to the February low at $1.12.