Here’s why Bitcoin price could crash lower amid rising market risks

Bitcoin price is trading just below the $70,000 mark even after US President Donald Trump announced a victory in the Iran war.

On March 12, Trump described the war as a short-term excursion that achieved its primary objectives within the first hour. 

He claimed that roughly 80% of Iran’s missile launchers and much of its naval power have been neutralised.

He declared the US has effectively won the conflict with Iran, signalling a potential end to the 10-day military engagement known as Operation Epic Fury. 

Bitcoin, however, barely reacted to the news and continued trading below the critical psychological level at $70,000, as there are still some signs that suggest it may be heading lower.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $69,740, up 0.1% in the last 24 hours.

Geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures

First, Iran has recently suggested it would change its retaliation strategy in the Middle East from reciprocal hits to continuous strikes against the interests of its adversaries, which it said was necessary to punish aggression. 

Further, it said it would continue blocking key maritime routes.

Analysts estimate that Iran is pushing energy costs to higher levels, which has recently created a headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

They are also concerned about higher inflation throughout the world, with the greatest impact coming in the US, which remains sensitive to energy price shocks. 

Interest rate expectations

Then, there is the impact of recent economic reports.

Wednesday’s US core CPI data for February suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates for a longer period.th

If tensions between the two nations continue even after Trump’s announcement, especially as Iran has not conceded or agreed with President Trump's claim, market volatility may persist. 

According to the CME FedWatch data, there is a 99.3% chance that the interest rates will remain unchanged, with the current target rate sitting at 3.50% to 3.75%. 

Odds of an April rate cut meanwhile stood at just 10.9% when writing, down sharply from 21% previously.

Another layer of uncertainty is that the recent market rally did not account for the potential for a prolonged energy crisis, which has rattled investor confidence. 

Next, there is the reality of the bond market. 

The yields on the 10-year Treasury have continued to go higher as bond markets price in a more hawkish fiscal outlook. 

These yields recently rose by a significant margin, further suppressing the appetite for speculative assets.

Technical Outlook for Bitcoin

Lastly, Bitcoin’s technicals also remain weak at the moment, especially since the flagship crypto has repeatedly failed to sustain a breakout above $70,000. 

As previously covered on Invezz, Bitcoin price needs to surge past $72,000 to invalidate a Death Cross, which has kept traders and technical analysts on high alert.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s open interest has also dropped steadily over the past few sessions, which goes to show that speculative conviction is waning. 

Unless Bitcoin is able to decisively reclaim $70,000 and subsequently break through the overhead resistance levels, it remains at risk of more downside, especially if macro conditions deteriorate.