Constellation stock falls as weak outlook, deal delays dent sentiment

Shares of Constellation Energy declined on Tuesday, pressured by weaker-than-expected earnings guidance and the absence of new data center deals at a closely watched investor update.

The stock fell about 8.3% after the company forecast 2026 adjusted earnings below analyst expectations, adding to investor concerns about its growth trajectory in an increasingly competitive market.

Weak guidance weighs on sentiment

Constellation guided for adjusted earnings of $11 to $12 per share in 2026.

While the range broadly aligned with market expectations, the midpoint fell below analysts’ estimates of around $11.6 to $11.73 per share, according to LSEG data.

The softer outlook comes at a time when investors are closely scrutinizing earnings visibility, particularly for companies tied to the artificial intelligence-driven surge in electricity demand.

Although the company reiterated strong long-term growth ambitions, including expectations of more than 20% annual base earnings growth through 2029, the near-term guidance failed to reassure markets.

The company also announced an expansion of its share buyback program to $5 billion, up from $3 billion previously, alongside plans for $3.9 billion in capital spending.

However, these measures were not enough to offset concerns around earnings momentum.

Lack of new deals disappoints investors

A key driver of the stock’s decline was the absence of new agreements to supply power to data centers, an area that has been central to Constellation’s growth narrative.

CEO Joseph Dominguez acknowledged the delay in announcing new transactions.

“I recognize that the last time we spoke, I indicated that we expected to be done with an important transaction by this call, but we’re not ready to announce anything today,” Dominguez said.

“There is clearly more scrutiny on data center development,” he added.

Investors had been expecting the company to unveil major deals, particularly long-term agreements to supply nuclear power to technology firms at premium pricing.

According to analysts, such contracts are seen as critical to sustaining valuation multiples and future earnings growth.

While Constellation has previously secured agreements with companies such as Meta and Microsoft, the slower pace of new deal announcements has dampened enthusiasm.

Rising risks and regulatory uncertainty

Beyond company-specific factors, broader market and regulatory challenges have also weighed on the stock.

There is increasing political scrutiny around data center energy consumption, with policymakers exploring ways to manage electricity costs for consumers.

Potential interventions in power markets could impact Constellation’s pricing power and profitability.

At the same time, delays related to infrastructure projects have added to uncertainty.

The company is working to restart a reactor at the Three Mile Island site—renamed the Crane Clean Energy Center—but grid connection timelines remain unclear, with some indications the project could face delays beyond its 2027 target.

Macroeconomic pressures have compounded these concerns.

The ongoing Iran conflict has pushed interest rates higher and raised fears of an economic slowdown, further weighing on sentiment toward growth-oriented energy plays.

Constellation’s stock has already declined about 25% this year and is down roughly 32% from its October highs, reflecting a reassessment of its growth outlook after a period of strong gains.