Airbus share price is in a freefall: here’s why it may rebound despite headwinds

Airbus share price has moved into a bear market after falling by over 27% from its highest point this year. It dropped to €157 this week, down sharply from the year-to-date high of €220. This article provides what to expect in April when the company publishes its earnings.

Airbus share price technical analysis points to a brief rebound 

The daily chart shows that the Airbus stock price has been in a strong downward trend this year. This retreat happened after the stock formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, which often leads to a bearish reversal sign in technical analysis.

Airbus stock dropped below the neckline of this pattern at €190 on February 20th after the company published its financial results and issued a weak forward guidance.

The stock formed a death cross pattern on March 16 as the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) crossed each other. A death cross is one of the riskiest patterns in technical analysis.

Airbus shares have moved below the Supertrend and the Ichimoku cloud indicators, a sign that bears remain in control. The stock is hovering at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level, where it has formed a small double-bottom pattern.

There are signs that the stock has formed a falling wedge pattern, which is made up of two descending and converging trendlines. In most cases, this pattern often leads to a strong bullish breakout.

If this happens, the stock may rebound to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at €172, which is up by 8% above the current level. A move above that price will point to more gains, potentially to the psychological level at €200.

AIR stock price chart | Source: TradingView 

Airbus is facing major headwinds this year 

The Airbus stock price has come under pressure in the past few months as headwinds continued soaring.

The most significant headwind is the ongoing Iran-US war, which has led to a surge in input costs. One of the main challenges is the soaring aluminum price, which accelerated after Iran bombed a major plant in the United Arab Emirates.

Airbus and other aircraft manufacturers use aluminum extensively because of its strength, lightweight characteristics, and corrosion resistance. This explains why Bank of America analysts slashed the Airbus stock price target to €255 from the previous €259.

The company also warned that its deliveries will be weaker than expected this year. It expects to deliver 870 aircraft this year, much lower than what analysts were expecting.

At the same time, the company continues to face substantial competition from Boeing, which is seeing strong traction among customers as its planes have become safer. A good example of this is in the Chinese market, where airlines in the country are preparing to make over 500 orders when President Donald Trump visits the country next month.

READ MORE: Airbus stock drop as fuselage panel issue and software recall raise delivery concerns

The most recent results showed that its revenue jumped to over €73.4 billion last year from €69.2 billion in 2024. Most of this revenue came from its A320 brand, which accounted for 82% of its commercial plane sales.

Its EBIT jumped to €7.1 billion from €5.4 billion a year earlier. It ended the quarter with a backlog of 8,754 planes valued at over $539 billion. 

Its helicopter backlog stood at 1,037, while the defense and space order book rose to over 50,770. This orderbook will likely continue growing in the foreseeable future as the ongoing geopolitical tensions lead to higher spending, especially by Europeans.

To sum it up, Airbus is facing major headwinds, including the slashed deliveries guidance, competition, and soaring input costs. However, technical analysis suggests that the stock may have a relief rally in the coming weeks or months.