Tesla stock is surging 2.5% ahead Q1 sales data: what to expect

Tesla shares rose 2.6% to $381.52 in early trading on Wednesday, tracking a broader market rally.

The S&P 500 advanced around 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.6%.

Markets moved higher as oil prices declined and expectations grew that the US-Iran conflict could ease.

Donald Trump said Iran’s president had requested a ceasefire, adding that the US would consider it once the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free, and clear.”

He also said US forces could leave Iran in “two or three weeks.”

Oil prices softened following the remarks. West Texas Intermediate futures fell about 1% to above $100 per barrel, while Brent crude slipped to around $102.

Delivery report in focus

Tesla is set to report its first-quarter delivery figures on Thursday.

Wall Street expects about 366,000 vehicles sold, up from roughly 337,000 a year earlier.

The upcoming release follows a weak first quarter in 2025, when Tesla delivered significantly fewer vehicles than expected.

At the time, Wall Street had projected about 378,000 units.

Actual deliveries missed consensus estimates by more than 10% and fell 13% year-on-year, marking the company’s worst quarterly decline on record at that point.

Despite the miss, the stock rose 5.3% on the day, supported by a report that CEO Elon Musk was planning to step back from his role in the Trump administration.

Political factors were cited as one reason for weaker sales.

European registrations show strength

Recent data points to improving demand in parts of Europe. Tesla’s March registrations rose sharply across several markets.

In France, registrations reached 9,569 vehicles, up 203% year-on-year, according to the PFA industry body.

This was just below the record of 9,572 units recorded in December 2023. Overall, car sales in France also increased for the first time since October.

Registrations rose 178% in Norway to 6,150 vehicles, 144% in Sweden to 1,447, and 96% in Denmark to 1,784, based on data from OFV, bilstatistik.dk and Mobility Sweden.

Elsewhere, registrations increased 72% in the Netherlands to 1,819 vehicles and 25% in Spain to 2,477, according to RAI and ANFAC data.

Tesla said in a letter to British media last month that registrations tend to be skewed toward the end of each quarter due to shipping patterns.

For the first quarter, registrations rose 108% in France, 95% in Norway, 48% in Sweden, 50% in Denmark and 43% in Spain, while falling 23% in the Netherlands.

Italy and Portugal are expected to release March data later on Wednesday, while Britain and Germany will report later in the week.

Volatility likely around results

Tesla shares have historically shown sharp moves around delivery announcements.

Over the past two years, the stock has moved an average of about 5%, either up or down, following quarterly delivery updates.

By comparison, daily moves outside of such events have averaged just under 3%.

In the last eight delivery reports, Tesla shares have declined five times and risen three times.

The most recent example came on January 2, when the stock fell 2.6% after Tesla reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 418,227 vehicles. Wall Street had expected closer to 423,000.

Although the miss was modest, expectations had already been lowered, with investors anticipating a figure near 415,000.

Deliveries also declined from a record 497,099 vehicles in the September quarter of 2025, when buyers rushed to take advantage of the expiring $7,500 federal EV tax credit.