Can gold hold $4,700 as oil surge reshapes rate cut expectations?

Gold was little changed to lower on Friday but remained on course for a weekly decline, as higher oil prices, firmer dollar and rising Treasury yields reduced the appeal of bullion despite continued geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

Spot gold was last near $4,675 an ounce, after hitting $4,697.06 in the previous session and easing further toward the $4,700 level.

The move has left the metal under pressure after a sharp retreat from recent record highs, with investors increasingly focused on the inflationary impact of energy markets rather than gold’s traditional safe-haven role.

Oil and rates reset the trade

The main pressure on bullion has come from crude.

Oil prices have climbed as the US-Iran conflict and repeated disruption around the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of tighter supply and stickier inflation.

Brent crude had surged to $105 a barrel, as markets reacted to worries over a ceasefire collapse and renewed shipping disruption.

That backdrop matters for gold because rising oil prices tend to push inflation expectations higher and reduce the likelihood of near-term interest-rate cuts.

A Reuters poll found that the Federal Reserve may have to wait at least six months before cutting rates as war-driven energy costs feed through to prices, reinforcing a higher-for-longer rates narrative.

For gold, that is a difficult mix: inflation risk might usually support demand, but higher yields and tighter policy expectations often do more damage.

Dollar strength adds to the pressure

The dollar has also made life harder for precious metals.

A stronger US currency makes dollar-priced bullion more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, weakening overseas demand.

At the same time, higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no income.

Rising oil has intensified inflation concerns and strengthened the view that US borrowing costs may stay elevated for longer.

Prices and technical levels in focus

Spot gold was around $4,697 on Thursday, not above the $4,900 level.

The data also showed gold at $4,693.48 on April 23, broadly confirming the market’s retreat towards the $4,700 area.

That suggests the cleaner story is one of consolidation after a powerful rally rather than a flat market with easing macro concerns.

Gold is facing profit-taking, stronger dollar support and upward pressure on yields, while oil remains the key variable for inflation and rate expectations.

Other precious metals have also softened, reflecting the broader pressure across the complex as investors rotate towards yield-bearing assets.