Is XRP headed for $1 as bearish signals overpower ETF inflows?

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple XRP are starting the new week on a steadier note after a volatile week that saw sharp corrections across major digital assets.

BTC, ETH, and XRP fell by roughly 4%, 2%, and 6% over the past week, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment in crypto markets. 

However, early Monday trading shows tentative stabilization as buyers step in at key technical levels.

Mixed market sentiment limits XRP’s recovery effort

Ripple’s XRP is down by 1% in the last 24 hours and now trades at $1.130. The coin has been consolidating around this region over the past few days.

The price action comes amid mixed market sentiment. Data obtained from CoinGlass’s ETF page revealed that XRP ETFs recorded an inflow of US$2.4 million (approx. $3.1 million) on Friday.

The ETFs failed to record any inflow on Thursday but maintained healthy inflows on the other days, suggesting institutional interest. 

The rising ETF interest suggests that institutional investors are taking advantage of the current price action to increase their exposure to XRP. 

However, retail demand continues to decline. According to CoinGlass, XRP’s long-to-short ratio reads 0.8474. 

A reading below 1 typically indicates bearish sentiment, with more traders positioning for further downside.

However, funding rate data has flipped positive.

XRP’s open interest-weighted funding rate has turned slightly positive at 0.0051%, suggesting that long positions are beginning to pay shorts, a signal often associated with mild bullish bias.

Finally, the futures Open Interest (OI) has dropped to US$2.6 billion (approx. $3.4 billion) from the US$2.8 billion (approx. $3.6 billion) recorded on Friday.

The declining OI suggests that retail traders are reducing their exposure to XRP as they anticipate a price decline in the near term. 

The mixed market sentiment is hindering XRP’s recovery efforts, with the coin likely to retest the June low in the near term. 

XRP price forecast: Bulls eye extended gains despite stale PA

Similar to the other leading cryptocurrencies, the XRP/USD 4-hour chart remains extremely bearish.

At press time, XRP is trading at $1.13, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. 

Momentum indicators suggest only a mild shift in pressure rather than a trend reversal, as the RSI sits around 43 and the MACD histogram has turned slightly positive, pointing to a modest easing in downside momentum. 

If the market embarks on a rally, immediate resistance is located at the channel boundary around $1.204. 

Beyond that, stronger hurdles appear at the 50-day EMA near $1.253, followed by a horizontal resistance level at $1.300. 

Further supply zones remain stacked higher, with the 100-day EMA around $1.350 and the 200-day EMA near $1.556 acting as major supply zones. 

A more significant breakout would be required to challenge the upper resistance region near $1.900, which would only come into play under a sustained bullish recovery. 

However, if the bearish trend persists, XRP would likely retest the June low of $1.05 in the near term.

A decisive break below this support could see XRP lose the $1.0 psychological level.