Tesla stock slips as investors eye deliveries data and SpaceX merger buzz

Tesla shares TSLA remained under pressure on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the electric vehicle maker's second-quarter delivery report while increasingly focusing on speculation surrounding a potential merger with SpaceX.

Tesla stock fell 1.8% to $374.69 after declining 5.8% in the previous session.

The shares have dropped nearly 13% in June and are down 4.7% since SpaceX began trading publicly on June 12, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Tesla is expected to release its second-quarter vehicle delivery and energy storage deployment figures in early July.

According to FactSet, analysts expect the company to deliver approximately 401,120 electric vehicles during the quarter, representing a 4% increase from a year earlier.

However, investor attention appears to be shifting away from Tesla's traditional automotive metrics and toward broader strategic developments involving artificial intelligence initiatives and the possibility of combining Elon Musk's businesses.

Analysts offer mixed views on vehicle deliveries

Wall Street remains divided on Tesla's near-term delivery outlook.

JP Morgan analyst Rajat Gupta lowered his second-quarter delivery estimate to 420,000 vehicles from 430,500 units, although the revised forecast remains above consensus expectations.

If achieved, the total would mark Tesla's strongest quarterly delivery performance since the company delivered a record 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025.

Gupta pointed to "mixed recent signals" on electric vehicle demand in China and the United States as government incentives expire. However, he noted that Europe "remains the bright spot."

Recent registration data appears to support that assessment.

According to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, Tesla vehicle registrations in European markets more than doubled in May compared with the same period last year.

RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan expects Tesla to deliver around 405,000 vehicles during the quarter.

However, he cautioned that the company's increased focus on robotaxis and humanoid robots could potentially weigh on demand for its privately owned vehicles.

Investors continue to view Tesla's artificial intelligence initiatives as central to the company's long-term growth story, with expectations that autonomous driving and robotics could create new sources of earnings beyond vehicle manufacturing.

SpaceX merger speculation and legal challenges add uncertainty

A potential combination of Tesla and SpaceX has emerged as another major topic among investors.

Baird analyst Ben Kallo estimated second-quarter deliveries at around 392,900 vehicles but said recent attention has centered on the SpaceX initial public offering and the prospect of a merger between Musk's companies.

"We see this as likely to happen sooner rather than later," Kallo wrote on the business combination.

The analyst believes a merger could occur within the next 18 months, giving SpaceX time to integrate its recent merger with xAI and establish itself as a public company.

"We see the strategic rationale for a merger as clear and compelling with both companies benefitting from greater scale. Questions may arise regarding regulatory review; however, we do not expect significant scrutiny given limited overlap of end markets," Kallo wrote.

Meanwhile, Tesla is also facing legal scrutiny following a fatal crash in Texas involving one of its vehicles.

The family of a woman who died after a Tesla Model 3 crashed into a home last week has filed a lawsuit against both Tesla and the driver, alleging gross negligence and wrongful death.

According to the lawsuit, the vehicle was operating with an automated driving assistance system and "failed to detect the end of the street" before crashing into the residence.

The suit alleges Tesla should be held liable for defects in its driver-assistance systems and for failing to adequately warn consumers of potential dangers.

Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a post on X that "FSD drives slowly through neighborhood streets and this was a high speed crash," referring to Tesla's Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system.

Another company executive stated that the driver manually pressed the accelerator pedal, overriding the self-driving system.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has launched a special investigation into the incident and is already conducting a separate investigation into possible defects in Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology.

As Tesla approaches its quarterly delivery report, investors are balancing near-term questions around vehicle demand with longer-term opportunities tied to artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and the potential reshaping of Musk's corporate empire.