XRP price holds above $1.10: can bulls break the $1.17 resistance w all?

Ripple's native token XRP is showing signs of stabilization above $1.10 on Friday after recent market weakness. 

However, the broader cryptocurrency sentiment remains fragile amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

While retail traders continue increasing their exposure through the derivatives market, institutional investors remain cautious, with spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) extending their streak of net outflows.

Middle East conflict weighs on crypto market sentiment

Risk appetite across financial markets weakened after tensions between the United States and Iran intensified.

According to reports, the US military carried out strikes on multiple targets along Iran's coastline late Wednesday.

Iran responded by launching attacks on US military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain, raising concerns over a broader regional conflict.

Despite the escalation, diplomatic efforts continue. Qatar's Prime Minister has reportedly urged both Washington and Tehran to return to negotiations in an effort to prevent further military escalation.

The heightened uncertainty has contributed to cautious trading across cryptocurrency markets, limiting stronger upside moves for major digital assets, including XRP.

Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, XRP continues to attract steady participation from retail traders.

Data from CoinGlass shows that XRP perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) remained around US$2.3 billion (approx. $3 billion) on Friday, up from approximately US$2.1 billion (approx. $2.7 billion) recorded on Thursday.

The increase in open interest suggests fresh capital is entering the derivatives market, reflecting growing confidence among retail investors that XRP could extend its recent rebound if market conditions improve.

Institutional sentiment, however, paints a more cautious picture. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded zero inflow on Thursday, after roughly US$7 million (approx. $9 million) in net outflows on Wednesday.

The continued outflows indicate that larger investors remain hesitant to increase exposure amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and the broader market's lack of clear direction.

The divergence between growing retail participation and weaker institutional demand highlights the mixed sentiment currently surrounding XRP.

XRP price outlook: Bulls face strong resistance

The XRP/USD 4-hour chart shows that XRP remains under pressure despite showing signs of recovery.

The token continues to trade below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.17, the 100-day EMA ($1.28), and the 200-day EMA ($1.49)

Momentum indicators show tentative signs of improvement.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 53, slightly above the neutral 50 level but gradually recovering from recent lows. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive, suggesting bearish momentum is beginning to ease.

The first hurdle for XRP bulls is the resistance near $1.14, followed closely by the 50-day EMA at $1.17.

A sustained move above these levels could shift attention toward the 100-day EMA at $1.28, while the 200-day EMA near $1.49 remains the major long-term resistance level.

However, if the bears regain control, XRP lacks a clearly defined technical support structure on the 4-hour timeframe, leaving the token vulnerable to renewed selling pressure if buyers fail to maintain momentum. 

Traders are likely to monitor the broader demand zone below the current price for signs of renewed buying interest should market weakness persist.