ADA price outlook: Cardano sinks despite heavy whale accumulation

Cardano ADA remained under selling pressure on Monday, slipping to $0.16 after declining more than 14% over the previous week.

Although on-chain data shows that large investors have been aggressively accumulating ADA during the recent pullback, bearish sentiment across the derivatives market and weakening technical indicators suggest the cryptocurrency could face additional downside in the near term.

Cardano whales continue accumulating ADA

On-chain data from Santiment indicates that major Cardano holders have been buying during the recent dip despite the ongoing price weakness.

According to the platform's Supply Distribution metric, wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA, 1 million and 10 million ADA, and 10 million and 100 million ADA have collectively accumulated approximately 320 million ADA since July 7.

This sustained accumulation reflects continued long-term confidence among large investors. 

Despite significant buying activity, whale demand has so far failed to stabilize ADA's price or trigger a meaningful recovery.

While whales remain optimistic, derivatives traders continue to position for further downside.

Data from CoinGlass shows Cardano's futures Open Interest (OI) has fallen to around $389 million on Monday.

After a brief increase in early July, Open Interest has resumed its broader downward trend.

Falling Open Interest alongside declining prices typically suggests traders are exiting positions rather than opening new bullish bets, reinforcing the bearish market outlook.

Additional weakness is evident in Cardano's funding rates. CoinGlass' Open Interest-Weighted Funding Rate for ADA turned negative on Friday and stood at -0.0028% on Monday.

Negative funding rates indicate that traders holding short positions are paying longs, a sign that bearish positioning has become dominant in the perpetual futures market.

Finally, CoinGlass also reports that Cardano's long-to-short ratio has dropped to 0.79, one of its lowest readings in more than a month.

A ratio below one indicates that short positions outnumber long positions, reflecting growing expectations among derivatives traders that ADA prices could continue falling.

Cardano price analysis: Key levels to watch

ADA is currently trading around $0.158-$0.160, remaining firmly below its major exponential moving averages (EMAs), which continue to reinforce the prevailing downtrend.

The primary resistance levels at the 50-day EMA ($0.181), 100-day EMA ($0.211), and 200-day EMA ($0.280)create a series of overhead barriers that bulls must overcome before a sustained recovery can develop.

Technical indicators continue to favor sellers.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 41, indicating weak buying momentum while remaining below the neutral 50 level.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is drifting toward the zero line, suggesting bullish momentum is fading and that any short-term rebound could encounter renewed selling pressure rather than signal a trend reversal.

If selling pressure persists, Cardano could revisit its immediate support near $0.150, which has recently acted as a horizontal floor.

A break below that level would shift attention to the $0.138 Fibonacci support, which represents the next major structural support zone.

Unless buying momentum strengthens significantly, Cardano's combination of bearish technical signals and weak derivatives positioning suggests the cryptocurrency may remain under pressure despite continued whale accumulation.