Invezz

UK unemployment steady at 4.9%, wage growth eases in May

UK unemployment steady at 4.9%, wage growth eases in May
Rivanshi Rakhrai
21 Jul 2026, 16:11 PM

powered by

Invezz
GBP/USD

Buy GBP/USD. The unemployment rate held at 4.9% (below 5.0% consensus) and jobless claims rose far less than feared (6.7K vs 28.3K). That mix supports a “no recession” labor story, keeping Bank of England rate-cut pressure contained. Even with bonus wages easing (4.3% vs 4.5% forecast), the core wage trend excluding bonuses stays steady at 3.4%, which is not a sharp disinflation shock. Key risk: a sudden re-acceleration in unemployment or a much larger jump in jobless claims that forces the market to price aggressive BoE cuts.

Key Risk: A sharp deterioration in labor data (unemployment up or jobless claims surge) that flips the BoE outlook to faster rate cuts.

UK 2Y Gilts

Sell UK 2Y gilts (buy yields). The data is mixed but not recessionary: unemployment is steady and jobless claims are rising less than expected, while core wages ex-bonus are unchanged. That combination argues against big near-term easing and supports higher front-end yields. Bonus wages slowing is a secondary signal; it’s not enough to justify a major duration bet. Key risk: inflation re-accelerates or wage growth including bonuses re-bounces, pushing the BoE to stay tighter and crushing the “yields up” move.

Key Risk: A renewed wage/inflation pickup that makes the BoE stay restrictive and drives gilts higher (yields down).

  • UK unemployment remained steady at 4.9% in the three months to May.
  • Jobless claims rose by 6.7K in June, below market expectations.
  • GBP/USD edged higher after the latest UK employment report.

The United Kingdom’s Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.9% in the three months to May, according to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday.

The latest reading matched the previous figure of 4.9%.

However, it came in below the market consensus of 5.0%.

The data showed that the UK labour market remained broadly stable during the period.

The unchanged unemployment rate also came alongside a rise in the number of people claiming jobless benefits.

According to the report, the number of people claiming jobless benefits increased by 6.7K in June.

This followed a revised increase of 1.3K in May.

The June increase was also below market expectations.

The consensus had pointed to a much larger gain of 28.3K.

Employment change rises to 147K in May

Additional data showed an increase in the Employment Change figure in May.

Employment Change stood at 147K in May.

This was higher than the 100K figure recorded in April.

The rise indicated an improvement in the employment change measure during the month.

However, the data came alongside mixed signals from other parts of the UK labour market report.

While the unemployment rate held steady, the increase in jobless claims highlighted some movement in the number of people seeking unemployment-related benefits.

The figures provided a mixed picture of employment conditions.

The unemployment rate remained stable, while employment change increased from the previous month.

At the same time, the rise in jobless claims was significantly lower than the expected increase of 28.3K.

UK wage growth remains stable excluding bonuses

The latest report also provided updated figures on average earnings in the UK.

Average Earnings, excluding Bonus, increased by 3.4% three months year-over-year (3M YoY) in May.

The figure was unchanged from the 3.4% growth recorded previously.

The latest reading also matched market expectations.

The consensus had forecast a 3.4% increase.

The data showed that wage growth excluding bonuses remained stable during the period.

There was no change from the previous reading, while the figure also came in line with the market forecast.

The steady pace of wage growth came as the UK labour market data showed an unchanged unemployment rate and a rise in employment change.

Average earnings including bonus ease to 4.3%

Another measure of wage inflation showed a slight slowdown in the period.

Average Earnings, including Bonus, climbed by 4.3% in the same period. This followed an increase of 4.4% in the quarter through April.

The latest reading therefore marked a decline from the previous 4.4% growth rate.

The figure also missed the market estimate of 4.5%.

The data indicated that earnings growth, including bonuses, was weaker than expected.

The combination of stable earnings growth excluding bonuses and slower growth including bonuses provided mixed signals on wage inflation in the UK.

Average Earnings excluding Bonus remained at 3.4%, matching expectations.

Meanwhile, Average Earnings including Bonus eased to 4.3% from 4.4% and fell short of the 4.5% market forecast.

GBP/USD edges higher after employment data

The British Pound (GBP) moved slightly higher following the release of the UK employment report.

The currency showed a modest positive reaction to the latest labour market figures.

The report included an unemployment rate that was below the market consensus and a smaller-than-expected increase in jobless claims.

At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair was trading 0.14% higher on the day at 1.3450.

The move reflected a modest strengthening of the British Pound against the US Dollar following the release of the employment data.

Overall, the latest figures showed that the UK ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.9% in the three months to May.

The reading was below the 5.0% market consensus.

Jobless claims increased by 6.7K in June.

However, the rise was below the expected 28.3K increase. Employment Change also improved to 147K in May from 100K in April.

Meanwhile, wage growth excluding bonuses remained unchanged at 3.4%.

Average Earnings including Bonus slowed to 4.3% from 4.4% and missed the 4.5% forecast.

Following the release, GBP/USD edged 0.14% higher to trade at 1.3450.