Invezz

From pubs to power bills: Burnham pushes cost-of-living relief amid funding questions

From pubs to power bills: Burnham pushes cost-of-living relief amid funding questions
Vatsala Gaur
23 Jul 2026, 23:27 PM

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Invezz
UK utilities (electricity bill VAT removal)

Buy: UK electricity suppliers/regulated networks levered to household bills (e.g., SSE (SSE.L) or National Grid (NG.L)). Removing VAT from household electricity bills is a direct demand-support policy for household energy consumption and reduces political pressure on energy affordability—supportive for cash generation and lower risk of abrupt price/levy changes. Key risk: the policy is reversed or replaced by a bigger, negative regulatory/levy adjustment that hits utility margins more than the VAT change helps.

Key Risk: A later regulatory/levy change wipes out the margin benefit from VAT removal.

UK hospitality (pubs)

Sell: short UK pub operators with high business-rate sensitivity (e.g., JD Wetherspoon (JDW.L) and Mitchells & Butlers (MAB.L)). The 20% business-rates cut is a headline offset, but it’s small versus ongoing weak consumer demand and higher labour/energy costs; markets will likely fade the relief as “temporary” and still worry about funding/fiscal tightening. Key risk: the rates cut meaningfully improves cash flow and triggers a sustained re-rating in UK leisure/hospitality earnings expectations (plus any follow-on support for consumer spending).

Key Risk: The business-rate cut becomes a durable earnings tailwind that outweighs weak demand and cost pressure.

  • Burnham announced a 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and music venues.
  • The government will remove VAT from electricity bills and reinstate England's £2 bus fare cap.
  • Economists and former ministers have questioned how the new measures will be funded.

Newly appointed UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has begun rolling out the first wave of his economic agenda, announcing a series of measures aimed at easing cost-of-living pressures for households and supporting struggling high streets, while facing growing scrutiny over how the proposals will be financed.

The new government has unveiled a £100 million package that includes a 20% reduction in business rates for pubs, clubs and live music venues in England from April, alongside earlier announcements to remove value-added tax (VAT) from household electricity bills and restore the £2 cap on bus fares.

Burnham has made lowering living costs one of the defining priorities of his administration after taking office this week, describing the measures as providing households with "some breathing space."

However, opposition figures, economists and fiscal experts have already questioned whether the government has identified sufficient funding sources to deliver the promises without putting additional pressure on Britain's public finances.

Business rates cut targets hospitality and high streets

The latest announcement focuses on supporting businesses that have struggled with rising operating costs and changing consumer behaviour.

Under the plan, eligible businesses including pubs, clubs and live music venues will receive a 20% reduction in business rates from April.

The government said the package would be fully funded through a review of existing relief available to businesses that are considered not to contribute positively to local communities, including vape shops.

The measures are intended to revive high streets that have faced years of declining footfall while offering relief to hospitality operators contending with higher labour, energy and operating costs.

The announcement comes as Britain's pub sector continues to battle closures and weak consumer spending despite temporary boosts from major sporting events such as the FIFA World Cup.

Cost-of-living measures begin with energy bills

The business rates package follows Burnham's first major policy announcement after entering Downing Street.

A day after becoming prime minister, he confirmed that the government would remove VAT from household electricity bills beginning in October, reducing annual bills by an average of about £45.

Burnham said the decision reflects his commitment to act quickly on household finances.

"I said I wanted to give people breathing space, and that's what I'm announcing on my second day as prime minister. We're taking immediate action to cut taxes on energy bills, put more money in people's pockets and bring back hope."

Downing Street estimated the VAT reduction would cost approximately £850 million during the 2026-27 financial year.

Officials said the measure would be financed by cancelling the previous government's digital ID programme, which had been expected to cost around £1.8 billion over the next three years.

Questions emerge over funding

The funding explanation has quickly come under scrutiny.

Former Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones, who was removed from government during Burnham's reshuffle, questioned whether the savings would be sufficient.

Writing on X, Jones said:

"The government will have to set out how it will pay for its new policies at the budget."

The Institute for Fiscal Studies also raised concerns.

IFS economist Helen Miller noted that while the digital ID programme was expected to cost £1.8 billion over three years, the VAT reduction alone would require approximately £850 million in a single year.

"The government will therefore still need to make around £850m of as yet unspecified cuts from other departmental spending to pay for this," Miller said.

She also questioned whether what has been presented as a temporary measure could eventually become permanent, increasing the fiscal burden further.

Bus fare cap returns

Burnham has also confirmed that England's £2 cap on bus fares will return from January and remain in place throughout 2027.

Some areas, including Greater Manchester and Liverpool, already operate similar schemes, while additional funding will be provided to devolved administrations should they choose to introduce comparable programmes.

The government argues that cheaper public transport will help reduce commuting costs while encouraging greater use of public transport.

Fiscal rules remain under the spotlight

The rollout of Burnham's early policy agenda comes as financial markets closely monitor Britain's public finances.

Although official data showed UK government borrowing in June came in below expectations, investors remain cautious given elevated debt levels, increased geopolitical risks following the Iran conflict and mounting spending commitments.

Burnham has repeatedly pledged to maintain Labour's fiscal rules and honour the party's manifesto commitment not to increase taxes on working people.

However, fiscal headroom appears to be narrowing.

According to the Resolution Foundation, the £23.6 billion buffer available at the time of the Spring Statement has likely fallen to around £10 billion.

"There is no spare cash lying around," the think tank warned.

At the same time, expectations are rising that the government will increase defence spending.

The appointment of John Healey, who previously resigned as defence secretary during disagreements over military funding, has fuelled speculation that the upcoming Budget could include higher defence allocations.

Healey stressed the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline.

"Fiscal credibility is the bedrock for economic stability and for national security," he said, while reiterating the government's commitment to meeting Britain's defence obligations.

According to Treasury estimates, the government will need to identify an additional £4.7 billion over five years to finance planned defence increases, alongside finding more than £10 billion through spending reallocations across government departments.