Will TRUMP price crash as team-linked wallets cash out $3.39M?

Official Trump price has fallen more than 8% over the past 24 hours to around $2.27 after team-linked wallets converted millions of dollars' worth of TRUMP into USDC, cutting into a rally that has still left the token up 61% over the past week.

According to on-chain analyst Lookonchain, wallets linked to the Official Trump team collected 3.39 million USDC over a 10-hour period through liquidity operations on Solana. 

Instead of placing a large market sell order, the wallets supplied TRUMP into liquidity positions that converted the tokens into USDC as buyers traded through the specified price ranges. The resulting USDC was subsequently withdrawn.

Selling pressure has since caught up with TRUMP. CoinGecko data showed the token trading around $2.27 on Aug. 26, down more than 8% over 24 hours, after falling from around $2.46 to an intraday low near $2.16. 

Price has recovered from that low, but remains well below levels reached during the latest rally.

The liquidity activity followed other movements involving team-linked wallets. Bitcoin.com, citing on-chain data, reported that around 646,000 TRUMP were transferred to OKX in two transactions, while another transfer involved 2.62 million tokens worth around $6.2 million at the time.

Exchange deposits do not confirm that the tokens were sold, but the transactions have added another source of potential supply after TRUMP's rapid rise.

At the same time, the size of the recent rally has left holders sitting on substantial short-term gains. 

Despite the latest decline, TRUMP remains up around 61% over seven days and nearly 52% over two weeks, making profit-taking another source of selling after the token climbed from around $1.40 last week.

Trading activity has also fallen from the levels recorded during the rally. With fewer buyers absorbing available supply, the combination of profit-taking and team-linked distribution has put pressure on a token that had risen rapidly in a matter of days.

Supply remains another factor. Tokenomics.com shows that TRUMP's vesting programme continues through December 2027, with 16 of 34 scheduled unlock events still remaining. 

The next release is scheduled for Sept. 18 and involves 28.7 million TRUMP, equal to 2.9% of total supply, with the tokens allocated to insiders.

The unlock is not part of the circulating supply entering the market on Aug. 26, but it leaves traders facing another sizeable release less than a month after the latest sell-off.

TRUMP price action

On the daily chart, TRUMP is still trading above three important exponential moving averages despite its sharp pullback. 

At $2.27, price remains above the 20-day EMA at $1.86, the 50-day EMA at $1.73, and the 100-day EMA at $1.89.

See below:

TRUMP/USDT 1-day price chart. Source: TradingView.

The recent rally, however, failed to establish price above the 200-day EMA at $2.71. 

TRUMP briefly broke through the long-term average during the surge towards $3 before sellers pushed it back below the level, making the $2.70-$2.71 region the first major resistance if buyers regain control.

Daily momentum has also started to weaken. The Stochastic RSI shows its faster line at around 67 while the slower line remains near 80, after both recently reached overbought territory. 

The bearish crossover means momentum has cooled as traders take profits, although the indicator has not yet moved into oversold territory.

Shorter time frames show stronger selling pressure. On the 4-hour chart, Williams %R has fallen to around -75 after approaching oversold territory during the decline. 

TRUMP/USDT 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView.

A move below -80 would place the indicator inside its conventional oversold zone, while a recovery towards -50 would provide an early sign that short-term buying momentum is returning.

The Aroon indicator is more bearish. Aroon Down stands near 93% while Aroon Up has dropped to zero, showing that recent lows are much newer than recent highs and that sellers still control the 4-hour trend.

Price has so far found buyers around $2.16-$2.20, making this the first support zone to watch. 

A decisive break below it could expose the psychological $2 level before the daily EMA cluster around $1.89-$1.86 comes into play.

A deeper sell-off towards that EMA zone would still leave TRUMP above its 50-day EMA near $1.73. 

Losing $1.86 followed by $1.73 would weaken the daily structure considerably and increase the risk that the recent rally is unwound further.

For buyers, reclaiming $2.40-$2.50 would be the first sign that the current decline is losing strength. 

The larger test sits around the 200-day EMA at $2.71, followed by the recent resistance zone around $2.95-$3.10.

The current indicators therefore do not confirm a full price crash yet. 

The 4-hour trend remains under pressure, but TRUMP continues to trade above its main short- and medium-term daily EMAs. 

A break below $2.16 would increase downside risk towards $2 and $1.86, while holding the current support and recovering above $2.50 would put the $2.71 resistance back in play.