SpaceX stock climbs above its IPO price: why Morgan Stanley's $300 call matters now

SpaceX stock NASDAQ:SPCX climbed back above their IPO price on Wednesday as investors assessed a $100 billion Louisiana expansion that could increase Starship launch capacity.

The stock closed at $139.63, up 1.2%, versus the $135 price of its June IPO. Shares have traded as high as $225.64 and as low as $104.83.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated a $300 price target after the Louisiana announcement, putting a bullish Wall Street call back in focus.

Morgan Stanley says investors may still underestimate Starship

Jonas believes Starbase Louisiana suggests SpaceX’s launch cadence could exceed assumptions embedded in Morgan Stanley’s long-term model.

“In our view, investors do not appreciate the scale of what SpaceX is planning with Starship,” Jonas said, according to TipRanks.

Morgan Stanley’s model assumes roughly $3.5 trillion of SpaceX revenue by 2040, yet the bank argues the company would not need to use the Louisiana facility at full capacity to support the launch rate behind those forecasts.

Jonas separately described SpaceX as “attractively valued,” saying the shares trade at around 10 times Morgan Stanley’s fiscal 2028 sales estimate, with revenue expected to grow about 70%, and roughly 25 times projected EBIT.

That makes the $300 target more relevant now, as Louisiana provides investors a tangible piece of infrastructure to connect with assumptions about dramatically higher Starship activity.

Louisiana could remove a major bottleneck

SpaceX plans to invest around $100 billion in a 125,000-acre Starbase complex in southern Louisiana.

Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with the first Starship launch targeted for 2029.

The site is expected to include multiple launch complexes, propellant infrastructure, power generation and vehicle-processing facilities.

Elon Musk has said the operation could eventually support more than 30 Starship launches per day.

That scale matters because Starship’s economics depend heavily on reuse and flight frequency.

The more often SpaceX can launch and reuse vehicles, the more potential it has to lower unit costs while supporting Starlink, government missions and longer-term orbital AI infrastructure ambitions.

Wolfe Research also reiterated an Outperform rating and $175 target after the announcement.

According to Yahoo Finance, Wolfe argued that Louisiana could remove one of the biggest infrastructure constraints preventing SpaceX from achieving a much higher Starship launch cadence.

The facility therefore provides bulls with something more concrete than another distant revenue forecast: capacity designed for those ambitions.

The $300 target still requires enormous assumptions

The valuation debate remains unsettled, as SpaceX is worth roughly $1.8 trillion despite carrying execution risk around Starship reuse, launch frequency and businesses.

Greenlight Capital founder David Einhorn recently called the IPO valuation “a marker that a speculative top is near,” according to Business Insider.

Greenlight questioned projections that SpaceX could eventually generate around $1 trillion of high-margin annual revenue, noting that such a figure would exceed the current revenues of Amazon or Walmart. Einhorn also highlighted negative free-cash-flow forecasts.

Morningstar is more cautious, as analyst Nicolas Owens valued SpaceX at $63 a share around the IPO.

His optimistic “moonshot” scenario reached $154, but depended on rapid Starship reuse and successful orbital data centres.

That gap shows why recovering above $135 does not validate Morgan Stanley’s $300 case by itself.

Starbase Louisiana gives the bull thesis more physical support, but the facility will not begin launches for years.

SpaceX still must prove that unprecedented infrastructure can translate into equally unprecedented revenue and profits.