Interview: The Gold Bullion Company MD on what could make or break gold’s next move

Gold’s extraordinary run in 2026 has been anything but smooth.

After a powerful surge earlier in the year pushed prices to record territory, the precious metal suffered a steep correction as the US dollar strengthened, rate expectations shifted and investors took profits.

However, August brought another sharp rebound, with gold now testing the $4,500-an-ounce area and putting the next major leg of the rally back in focus.

The recovery comes against an increasingly complex macro backdrop.

Investors are weighing the outlook for US interest rates and real yields alongside renewed concerns over government debt, fiscal policy and the Treasury’s expanded long-dated bond buybacks.

At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty and central-bank demand continue to provide structural support, even as institutional flows remain uneven.

The key question is whether the August rebound can develop into a sustainable breakout, or whether a stronger dollar and renewed monetary tightening could trigger another sizeable pullback.

In an interview with Invezz, Rick Kanda, Managing Director at The Gold Bullion Company, discusses what gold needs to break convincingly above $4,500, how Treasury and Federal Reserve policy could shape the market, the importance of central-bank and ETF demand, and why his bull case could see prices reach as high as $6,000 an ounce by the end of 2026.

Edited excerpts:

Invezz: Gold is now testing the $4,500 area after a sharp August rebound. What would need to happen for prices to break sustainably above that level?

Rick Kanda: In order for gold to break sustainably above $4,500/oz, I believe we would need to see a mixture of falling or at least stabilising real yields, along with a weaker US dollar, and strong investment demand.

Further to this, concerns around fiscal policy and debt will also support gold.

Recent announcements around the Treasury buybacks have caused concern among policymakers about long-term borrowing costs, which has ramped up demand for gold as a hedge against risks. 

Breaking sustainably above $4,500/oz would be much more likely if we see ETF inflows returning as well as continued central bank purchases.

But, a stronger US dollar and a shift in expectations towards US rates could potentially make this harder to sustain. 

Invezz: How much of gold’s latest rally is fundamentally driven, and how much reflects markets reacting to the US Treasury’s expanded long-bond buybacks?

Rick Kanda: I would be careful in stating that the Treasury buybacks are the fundamental reason for gold’s most recent rally; rather, I would say it is an important factor, as they have helped accelerate a move that was already supported by several other factors.

For example, concerns around US debt and a weaker dollar, continued geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank demand. 

However, the buybacks do matter because they have raised questions about the sustainability of long-term Treasury yields as well as the direction of US fiscal policy, which you could say may make gold more attractive to hold.

But I wouldn’t attribute the entire rally to the Treasury. If the several other factors weren’t already in place, a policy announcement like this would be much less powerful. 

Invezz: Markets have raised expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike following Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks. How important will the Fed’s next moves be for gold through the end of 2026?

Rick Kanda: I think the Fed could be an incredibly significant swing factor for gold through the end of 2026.

Gold is a non-yielding asset, so it does not pay interest; therefore, the direction of real yields and the US dollar is extremely important to gold's attractiveness. 

If the Fed is willing to tolerate some inflation and keep rates down, this would support gold, especially with a weaker dollar.

But if the Fed is forced into further rate hikes, this would put pressure on gold as yields would rise and investors would be more comfortable holding income-producing assets.

However, the market is dealing with several other factors we’ve touched on which will continue to support gold either way. 

Invezz: If the US dollar rebounds from its recent weakness, could that trigger another major correction in gold, even if geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated?

Rick Kanda: Yes, I believe that the US dollar remains one of the clearest risks for gold. However, it's the reason behind the dollar’s rebound that matters most.

If the dollar rebounds because US economic data improves and markets price out rate cuts, then gold could come under pressure.

But if the dollar rebounds because markets are moving into a risky environment, geopolitical uncertainty could offset some of that pressure through safe-haven demand.

Therefore, a US dollar rebound creates more of a double headwind, increasing volatility more than anything else. 

Invezz: Central banks bought 289 tonnes of gold in Q2 after a much weaker Q1. Could renewed official-sector buying become the biggest support for prices from here?

Rick Kanda: Again, I wouldn’t call central-bank buying the single biggest driver of gold prices, even though it is one of the most important supports for the precious metal.

The recent major rebound in Q2 was significant, but I believe it wasn’t simply reactive to today’s price; rather, it was part of a longer-term diversification strategy for central banks. 

Invezz: US gold ETFs saw outflows during Q2 despite strength elsewhere in the market. What would persuade institutional investors to return more aggressively?

Rick Kanda: Stronger momentum and a more supportive economic backdrop would likely persuade institutional investors to increase their exposure to gold as an asset.

However, I don’t necessarily think the Q2 ETF outflows mean that they’ve lost faith in gold. If we continue to see gold rise as a result of a weaker US dollar and lower interest rates, we could see institutional investors return. 

Invezz: What is your realistic base-case price range for gold by the end of 2026, and what bull- and bear-case scenarios could push it outside that range?

Rick Kanda: My base case is $4,800-$5,300/oz- This would represent a slight increase from current levels without requiring another explosive move similar to the one we’ve already seen earlier this year. 

My bull case is $5,500-$6,000/oz- This is my prediction if several factors line up perfectly. For example, if the Fed turns more dovish, the US dollar remains under pressure, geopolitical uncertainty intensifies, and central-bank and institutional demand accelerates.

My bear case is $4,000-$4,400/oz- These are my thoughts if the opposite of the above happened, requiring a sustained dollar rebound, further Fed tightening, higher real yields, and a meaningful reduction in geopolitical risk.