XLM soars higher amid mixed derivatives data: check forecast

Stellar’s XLM is rallying alongside the broader cryptocurrency market despite mixed derivatives data.

Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP have recorded substantial gains in the last 24 hours, dragging the broader cryptocurrency market along.

XLM is now trading at $0.155 and could rally higher as the futures Open Interest (OI) increases. 

Derivatives data show mixed sentiment

XLM is up by nearly 4% in the last 24 hours and is now trading at $0.155.

The rally comes despite mixed sentiment from the derivatives data.

According to CoinGlass, XLM’s funding rate flipped negative on Monday and currently reads -0.0025%, close to the levels seen during the mid-February market dip.

The negative funding rates indicate shorts are paying longs, suggesting bearish sentiment toward XLM.

Furthermore, the long-to-short ratio stands at 0.79 on Wednesday, nearing its lowest level in over a month.

This ratio below 1 indicates bearish sentiment as traders are betting on the Stellar price to fall.

However, Stellar’s futures Open Interest (OI) has increased to $90.26 million, from the $84.87 million recorded on Tuesday. 

The OI has been steadily declining since early January and reaching levels not seen since mid-November 2024.

The decline in XLM’s OI reflects waning investor participation and projects a bearish outlook.

Stellar Price Forecast: Will XLM retest the February 27 high of $0.169?

The XLM/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient despite the ongoing rally. The near-term bias has flipped bullish.

However, XLM is trading below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which continue to slope lower, underscoring a dominant downtrend. 

XLM failed to overcome the $0.17 resistance level last week, signalling that sellers still control rebounds rather than a completed reversal. 

The momentum indicators are showing signs of recovery, giving the bulls a chance to push the price higher. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart reads 52, above the neutral 50, indicating a fading bearish momentum.

The e Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds above the zero line with a growing positive histogram, suggesting rising upside pressure within a broader bearish structure.

If the bulls push past the first major resistance level at $0.16, XLM could rally higher and retest the $0.169 high recorded on February 27.

An extended rally will bring the $0.185 swing point into play, last tested on February 15.

However, if the recovery fails and XLM closes the daily candle below the $0.15 support level, the bears might push the price towards the recent swing low near $0.14. 

As long as XLM trades below $0.16–$0.18, rallies would face supply, making it harder for the bulls to embark on a sustainable recovery run.

Regardless, traders have to keep an eye on the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East as it could affect prices in the near term.