XRP price forecast as 36.8B of supply hit unrealized loss

XRP faces continued downside pressure as a massive portion of its supply plunges into unrealized losses amid broader market weakness.

The cryptocurrency hovers near $1.35 amid bearish sentiment exacerbated by the US/Israel and Iran war.

As sellers re-emerge after a brief uptick last week, Glassnode data indicate the potential for fresh capitulation as more XRP holders move their positions to the short side.

What's the near-term price outlook for the Ripple cryptocurrency as Bitcoin trades near $67,000?

XRP in loss hits 36.8 billion

XRP trades at approximately $1.35 as of March 9, 2026, reflecting a slight 24-hour uptick but still down 7% over the past month.

Ripple's cryptocurrency has notched a 64% surge in daily trading volume, which exceeded $1.95 billion at the time of writing.

In terms of prices, XRP is positioned near recent lows, with a daily range between $1.33 and $1.37 as its market cap hovers near $82.9 billion.

But one metric attracting notable chatter today is the amount of XRP supply in loss.

According to Glassnode, roughly 36.8 billion XRPs that account for about 66% of the circulating supply are in unrealized loss.

That's over $50.8 billion in unprofitable positions.

With a circulating supply of around 61.23 billion out of a fixed total of 100 billion, this metric underscores widespread holder pain, potentially fueling further selling from weak hands.

Ripple (XRP) technical outlook

XRP has struggled for upside momentum since peaking in 2025, and has traded sideways year-to-date after losing its aggregate holder cost basis.

In early February, the SOPR (7D EMA) fell to 0.96 from highs of 1.16 in Jul 2025, and bulls continue to struggle as on-chain losses deepen.

According to analysts at Glassnode, the on-chain profitability setup closely aligns with what was seen in previous bear market phases.

Notably, XRP's unrealized loss levels closely mirror classic capitulation zones in the 2018-2019 and 2022 bear markets.

Panic selling during these cycles pushed most of the supply underwater, with prolonged consolidation then taking over.

Historically, such unrealized loss extremes have preceded rebounds as panic selling exhausted itself. 

But given weak hands may yet exit amid broader bearish sentiment, there are risks of additional short-term downside action for XRP. 

Technical indicators reinforce this tension, with the daily RSI sloping near 42 to indicate room for further dips to oversold conditions.

Charts also show the MACD has a bearish bias as the histogram shrinks to suggest potential selling momentum.

Key support looms at $1.31, aligning with Bollinger Band lows, followed by major zones at $1.20 and the recent monthly low on February 5, 2026. Bearish targets include a plunge toward the $1.00 structural support or lower.

On a bullish note, reclaiming $1.40 and the upper Bollinger Bands level could spark a rebound to $1.80 and the psychological $2.00 resistance level.

A broader market upside will potentially drive prices toward the key $3.50 zone.