Will Bitcoin reclaim $70K if US-Iran reach a deal?

Bitcoin price has once again failed to hold above $70,000 as investors awaited more cues on the potential for a breakthrough in geopolitics, specifically regarding the US and Iran reaching a deal to de-escalate regional tensions.

The flagship crypto hit a weekly high above $70,200 after reports surfaced suggesting that the US and Iran were considering a longer ceasefire that could stabilize global energy markets.

Notably, the two countries and a group of regional mediators are weighing terms for a multi-day cessation of hostilities.

Meanwhile, sources familiar with the matter noted both Washington and Tehran have received a proposal for a de-escalation framework, and a final agreement may be reached regarding maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking to the media at a press briefing, US President Donald Trump reiterated earlier comments that Iran would “have no bridges” and “no power plants” left standing unless they adhered to the proposed terms.

“I won’t go further because there are other things that are worse than those two,” he added, highlighting the severity of the diplomatic stakes.

Will Bitcoin price go up?

With the self-imposed deadline for a deal being 8 pm Eastern time on Tuesday, volatility in the crypto markets began to spike.

All eyes are now on this diplomatic outcome, and a successful resolution could be the catalyst needed for a Bitcoin rally to firmly reclaim this psychological level of $70,000 and push higher toward new all-time highs.

Should a deal fail to materialize, Bitcoin’s risk perception could shift back toward a "safe haven" narrative.

At the same time, a positive breakthrough would likely propel risk assets across the board, including Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

However, so far there has been no official confirmation from the Iranian leadership, who have insisted that the Strait of Hormuz would remain blocked until Iran receives compensation for war damages and sanctions relief.

This hesitance has capped Bitcoin’s momentum around current levels and is preventing it from breaking above resistance as it faces heavy selling pressure.

“As price probed the $70,000 region, Realized Profit/hour spiked above $20 million, signalling a local exhaustion,” on-chain analytics platform Glassnode said, adding that “every approach to the $70,000–$80,000 band meets thin liquidity and profit-taking pressure, capping the bounce.”

Consistent buying pressure can lift Bitcoin

There’s also strong buying demand from MicroStrategy, as Michael Saylor’s Strategy has been taking supply off the market at an aggressive pace.

Since March 2, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have increased by approximately 46,233 BTC, a figure which significantly outweighs the total production from miners, who have only generated roughly 16,200 BTC over the same period.

Such a supply-demand imbalance could help the flagship crypto break through its current resistance and trend higher.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs also witnessed net inflows on April 6, which adds another layer of support.

Treasury demand could slow Bitcoin

However, there’s also a macro headwind for Bitcoin as investors re-evaluate the bond market, as a resolution would likely strengthen investor appetite for US Treasuries.

Yields on the US 5-year Treasury note surged to 4% from 3.55% as investors are demanding higher returns to hold government debt amidst the uncertainty.

Part of this surge is attributed to fears of sticky inflation due to increased spending on military efforts, but an eventual ceasefire and renewed confidence in the US Treasury could lead investors to rotate out of alternative hedges like Bitcoin.

At press time, Bitcoin price was hovering above $68,900 with losses of less than 1% on the day.