TLT ETF stock forecast as outflows rise, US 30-year bond yields soar

The iShares US 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) slumped to its lowest level since July 2025 as long-term US government bond yields surged to a 19-year high this week. TLT also plunged as it suffered the biggest weekly outflows in years. It has now plunged by 8% from its highest point in October last year.

US 30-year Treasury yields are soaring

The TLT ETF stock plunged this week as concerns about the US economy continued. Investors are concerned about stagflation in the country as inflation jumps and economic growth slows. 

Data released this week showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped from 3.3% in March to 3.8% in April. Another report revealed that the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) soared to 6%, its highest level in years.

Unfortunately, there are signs that US inflation will continue soaring as the US ceasefire remains on life support and as energy prices surge. The average US gasoline price has jumped to $4.511, more than 50% where it was in February this year.

Brent crude oil price sits above the key resistance level at $105, and may explode higher if President Donald Trump decides to restart his war against Iran. All this is happening ahead of the US driving season that starts after the Memorial Day weekend.

As a result, there are concerns on the options that the Federal Reserve has in the near term as the country has now moved to a stagflation period. Hiking interest rates will slow the economy further, while cutting rates will lead to higher inflation in the near term.

Soaring US public debt

The US government bond yields are also soaring amid the rising US public debt. Data shows that the public debt is nearing the $40 trillion mark, much higher than where it was a few year ago. 

Unfortunately, American politicians are no longer working to fix the situation. Instead, they are making the situation worse by continuing their spending spree. For example, the Iran war has cost over $29 trillion, with some analysts putting the number at over $100 billion. 

The Trump administration is also seeking to boost the defense spending to $1.5 trillion, higher than that of many other countries combined. Consequently, there is a risk that the US budget deficit will hit $2 trillion this year. 

TLT ETF outflows and China dumping

These events mean that investors are afraid of the state of the US economy. As a result, the TLT ETF has had over $4 trillion in outflows this year despite its growing yield. It has shed over $291 million in assets this week.

At the same time, some crucial holders of US public debt have started selling. The most notable one is China, a country that has dumped billions of dollars worth of debt in the past few years. It now holds under $700 billion in debt from a record high of over $1.3 trillion. 

TLT stock price technical analysis

TLT chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart reveals that the TLT stock price has been in a freefall this year and is now at its lowest point since July last year. It recently crashed below the important support level at $85.46, its lowest level in March. Falling below that level had it invalidate the double-bottom pattern.

The stock has plunged below all moving averages and the Supertrend indicator. Also, most of its oscillators have continued plunging this year.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the TLT ETF continues falling as sellers target the key psychological level at $80.