XRP price surges past $1.13: Breakout or fake bounce?

XRP price currently sits at around $1.13, holding a 2.0% gain over the last 24 hours.

The XRP price hike comes after several days of pressure across the broader market, where XRP still shows a 21.6% decline over the past 30 days and nearly 49% drop over the past year.

But despite the longer-term weakness, the mild price surge has shifted attention back to whether the current rebound is building into a recovery or simply another short-lived bounce inside a broader downtrend.

Short-term XRP price analysis shows a tightening structure

XRP’s move above $1.13 has been supported by a short-term recovery structure that developed after XRP defended the $1.10–$1.12 support zone, which has acted as a base for multiple intraday rebounds.

On the 15-minute chart, price action has been compressing around the 60-period exponential moving average, with candles repeatedly testing and holding above it.

This type of compression often signals that momentum is stabilising after a directional move.

Order flow data also shows a tilt toward buyers, with readings indicating roughly 56.8% buyer dominance in recent sessions.

While short-term order book data can shift quickly, it reflects reduced immediate selling pressure compared to earlier in the week.

Also, on the daily chart, the RSI (14) is sitting at around 30, just at the oversold barrier.

Technically speaking, if the XRP price remains above $1.12–$1.14, it will keep the current short-term structure intact.

However, a breakdown below $1.10 would expose the next support range between $1.04 and $1.09, where buyers previously stepped in during prior declines.

Utility expansion and network activity support the rebound narrative

The recent XRP price movement has also coincided with new developments around Ripple’s payments ecosystem.

Ripple has expanded its partnership with Bitso, a major Latin American exchange, to support issuance of a regulated Mexican peso stablecoin known as MXNB on the XRP Ledger.

This development ties directly into XRP’s role in cross-border settlement infrastructure, as the stablecoin will operate on the XRP Ledger and integrate into Ripple’s payments systems.

The move adds a new layer of real-world usage for the network, particularly in regulated payment corridors.

On-chain activity has also shown recovery.

XRP Ledger transaction volume has moved back above the 1 million daily transaction threshold, after previously slowing to lower levels earlier in the month.

This rebound suggests increased network utilisation rather than purely speculative trading activity.

At the same time, sentiment data shows a sharp deterioration in market mood. According to Santiment, XRP sentiment has fallen to its lowest level since October 2025.

Historically, similar periods of extreme pessimism have often aligned with recovery phases, though they do not guarantee sustained reversals.

Technical signals clash with whale distribution trends

While the XRP price and network activity show early recovery signals, large-holder behaviour presents a different picture.

Analyst Ali Martinez has pointed out that the TD Sequential indicator has printed a buy signal on the 3-day chart, suggesting a potential exhaustion of selling pressure in the short term.

This type of signal has often appeared during temporary reversal phases in trending markets.

However, whale activity has weakened significantly.

The number of transactions above $1 million dropped from 157 to 67 within nine days, marking a 57.3% decline in large transfers.

At the same time, Santiment data shows that approximately 60 million XRP has been sold or redistributed by whale wallets over the past week.

This divergence between technical signals and whale behaviour has created an uneven market structure.

While indicators suggest a possible short-term rebound, distribution from large holders introduces ongoing supply pressure that can limit sustained upside movement.