3 ETF picks that could deliver strong upside in July’s rally

Wall Street is heading into July with a more bullish tone after a volatile June, as strategists point to seasonality, stronger earnings and renewed AI appetite as potential tailwinds for US equities.

Wells Fargo, in a strategy note led by Ohsung Kwon, called for a “strong summer rally ahead,” citing improving investor positioning, delayed AI-related IPOs and expected second-quarter EPS growth of 22%, up from 19% in the first quarter.

The bank also expects tariff refunds to help lift parts of the market.

Wells Fargo estimates that about $36 billion (approx. £27.3 billion) of refunds have already been processed, with another $90 billion (approx. £68.1 billion) potentially still to come.

Consumer staples and industrials are seen as two of the clearest beneficiaries.

For investors looking at ETFs, that creates three possible routes into the same July setup: broad-market exposure, AI infrastructure, or concentrated big-tech upside.

VOO: Betting on broad-market seasonality

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF is the cleanest way to play the broad July rally thesis without making a narrow call on one sector.

VOO tracks the S&P 500 and charges a low 0.03% fee, one reason the fund recently became the first ETF to surpass $1 trillion (approx. £757 billion) in assets.

That matters in the current setup because Wells Fargo’s argument is not only about AI. The bank is also leaning on the old seasonal playbook.

MarketWatch reported that Wells Fargo sees the first half of July as the strongest comparable period for the S&P 500 over the past century, with an average return of 1.35%.

VOO gives investors access to that broader move. It also captures any earnings boost from tariff refunds, without requiring a specific bet on whether consumer staples, industrials, or technology stocks lead the month.

Also read: 3 tech stocks to buy before July 2026 prices move higher

SOXX: Playing the AI infrastructure catch-up trade

The iShares Semiconductor ETF is the more targeted option for investors who believe the AI trade is spreading from the biggest chip designers into the wider semiconductor supply chain.

SOXX tracks US-listed semiconductor stocks and gives exposure across the chip value chain, including companies tied to AI and digital infrastructure spending, according to iShares.

The fund had 30 holdings as of June 30 and an expense ratio of 0.34%.

This is where the Goldman Sachs argument fits. Ben Snider, chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, wrote that AI-related investment is expected to drive roughly 40% of S&P 500 EPS growth this year.

Goldman also said the largest cloud infrastructure companies are expected to spend about $670 billion (approx. £507.2 billion)in 2026, after consensus capex estimates jumped by $130 billion (approx. £98.4 billion) last quarter.

Also read- Summer rally pattern: 4 stocks with historical edge in early July

QQQ: Concentrated upside if big tech leads again

If July’s rally is led once more by mega-cap technology, the Invesco QQQ ETF remains one of the most direct ways to capture that move.

QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100 and carries a 0.18% expense ratio, according to Invesco.

The attraction is straightforward. If investors return to AI leaders, cloud platforms and dominant growth stocks, QQQ should be better positioned than a broad-market fund. That is also the risk.

Goldman’s Snider has warned that market breadth has dropped to one of its narrowest levels since the dotcom era, even as earnings expectations remain strong.

He also wrote that near-term market swings are likely to keep tracking geopolitical volatility.

Charles Schwab’s mid-year outlook made a similar point. Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon wrote that earnings are driving the bull market, but leadership remains narrow and concentrated in AI and energy-related sectors.

They also warned that markets could be vulnerable to disappointment because positioning is stretched and bond yields remain a pressure point.