Morning Brief: Asia stocks fall, US-Iran tensions simmer

Global markets opened Friday under pressure as Asian equities declined, oil prices climbed, and the dollar strengthened amid a US military build-up in the Middle East.

At the same time, developments in artificial intelligence financing, European monetary policy leadership, and diplomatic tensions between Washington and Tehran shaped broader market sentiment.

Asian equities retreat amid rising geopolitical risk

Stocks in Asia retreated as investors moved toward safer assets.

Japan’s Nikkei dropped about 1.1%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.6% after reopening from the Lunar New Year break.

South Korea's Kospi bucked the weakness and surged 2.17% while India's Nifty 50 gained 0.48%.

Oil prices rose to multi-month highs, with Brent crude climbing above $72 a barrel after US President Donald Trump gave Iran a 10-to-15-day deadline to reach a nuclear agreement or face consequences.

Overnight on Wall Street, private-equity firms also weighed on sentiment.

Shares of Blue Owl fell roughly 6% after the firm sold assets and permanently halted quarterly redemptions in one of its funds, raising concerns about valuations and liquidity.

Larger rivals Apollo Global Management and Blackstone declined more than 5%.

Currency markets reflected defensive positioning.

The dollar headed for its largest weekly gain in four months, rising about 0.9% against the euro.

US Treasury yields remained steady, with the 10-year yield around 4.06%.

Nvidia nears major equity investment in OpenAI

Financial Times reported that Nvidia is close to finalising a $30 billion investment into OpenAI, replacing a previously announced long-term $100 billion partnership.

The deal would form part of a broader funding round expected to raise more than $100 billion and value the ChatGPT developer at $730 billion before new capital.

The earlier arrangement had planned incremental investments tied to OpenAI’s rising computing demand and large-scale purchases of Nvidia processors.

However, it never progressed beyond a memorandum of understanding. The new structure would instead take the form of a straightforward equity investment.

OpenAI is expected to channel much of the funding back into computing infrastructure and hardware to support expanding AI workloads.

The company has also been negotiating with other strategic investors, including SoftBank and Amazon, while maintaining relationships with chipmakers and cloud providers such as AMD, Broadcom, and Oracle.

The shift comes as investors reassess valuations across the artificial intelligence sector following volatility in technology stocks.

Lagarde signals plan to serve full ECB term

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde addressed speculation that she might resign early, saying she plans to serve through the end of her mandate.

“When I look back at all these years, I think that we have accomplished a lot, that I have accomplished a lot,” she said in a Wall Street Journal report. “We need to consolidate and make sure that this is really solid and reliable. So my baseline is that it will take until the end of my term.”

Lagarde emphasized her focus on maintaining price and financial stability and safeguarding the euro. “Protecting the euro, making sure that it is solid and strong and fit for the future of Europe.”

Her comments came amid reports that she is planning to step down ahead of the 2027 French presidential election.

While she declined to comment on specific reports about an early departure, the ECB said no decision had been made.

US–Iran tensions escalate

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remained a major driver of markets.

The United States has increased military deployments in the region, while negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program remain uncertain.

Trump said the outcome would be known soon: “We have to make a meaningful deal otherwise bad things happen.”

He also stated the world would find out “over the next, probably, 10 days” whether a diplomatic agreement would be reached or military action considered.

Iran warned the United Nations that it would respond to aggression and could target regional military assets.

Tehran said Trump’s rhetoric “signals a real risk of military aggression” but added it did not seek war and would respond “decisively” if attacked.