Apple stock: is biggest revenue catalyst of 2026 already here?

Apple stock (NASDAQ: AAPL) has traded largely sideways in recent months, as investors question whether the company can deliver a meaningful AI-driven catalyst.

The perception that Apple is lagging behind rivals in artificial intelligence has weighed on sentiment despite its strong core business.

Wedbush’s Dan Ives is betting that changes in Apple’s 2026 lineup, and what he calls a sweeping portfolio refresh, could turn that narrative into a revenue story for AAPL.

The question investors keep circling is the same one Apple bulls and skeptics are quietly asking each other: Is the catalyst already in motion, or is Wall Street simply pulling forward excitement that won’t show up in numbers for a while?​

Apple stock: What the refresh looks like

Ives’ thesis starts with the iPhone, because that’s still Apple’s gravity.

His view is that an “AI upgrade cycle” can push a large base of older iPhone owners to trade up once Apple’s on-device AI features feel indispensable in daily use, not just impressive in a demo.

The product glue here is Apple Intelligence and, more specifically, the Siri rebuild that Wedbush argues is moving into a 2026 release phase.​

The catch is that Apple’s own rollout plan reads more like a sequence than a single launch.

Wedbush notes that key “personalized Siri” capabilities have faced internal testing issues that could shift pieces of the release from iOS 26.4 (expected in March) into iOS 26.5 (May), with some features potentially slipping again to iOS 27 in September.

Apple has plans to launch the smarter Siri in 2026, but it hasn’t pinned down a month, and recent product events haven’t consistently featured major AI upgrades.​

The refresh narrative also includes at least one potential new hardware category: a foldable iPhone.

Apple’s first foldable iPhone is expected in September 2026 as part of the iPhone 18 lineup, with rumors clustering around a book-style design that opens to roughly a 7.8-inch inner display.

Pricing chatter is equally eye-catching: the same report flags a wide range of estimates, including $2,000 to $2,500.​

Then there’s the part Wall Street cares about most: recurring revenue.

Wedbush argues that “AI monetization” could add $75 to $100 to Apple’s share price over time, and it floats the idea of an AI-driven subscription layer launching by fall, aimed at Apple’s vast installed base.​

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Why market isn’t fully convinced yet

The pushback on Apple stock isn’t subtle.

China remains the biggest stress test, both as a market and as a manufacturing reality, and investors keep getting reminded that Apple’s position there can swing quickly when local competitors surge.

Regulatory scrutiny adds another layer: a review of Apple’s App Store policies by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has been cited as a risk if Apple resists changes around fees and payment rules.

Skeptics also have a simpler point on the AI story.

Apple has announced, but it hasn’t yet proven it can deliver AI at scale in a way that clearly lifts revenue.

In Wedbush’s framing, the market is treating Siri as a credibility scoreboard, because investors can’t directly “test” Apple’s AI future the way they can track iPhone shipments or Services growth.

Ives himself has warned that meaningful delays would be “a burden” for the stock, a blunt line that captures why AAPL can sell off on product-timing chatter even when the core business stays steady.​