Toncoin price forecast: TON retests key level after channel breakout

Toncoin (TON) has surged past a key channel resistance, with intraday gains to $1.39 extending the uptick seen over the past week.

While momentum remains weak following the choppy start to the year, fresh movement in cryptocurrencies suggests that bulls may target a short-term rally.

Toncoin’s 6% price increase in the past 24 hours comes amid a flip in on-chain metrics, and the technical picture supports a potential continuation above $1.40.

Toncoin extends gains amid altcoin uptick

Toncoin was up 6% over the past 24 hours, hitting $1.39 amid a broader altcoin pump.

A significant amount of momentum has followed Bitcoin’s push above $70,000, with the BTC price reaching highs of over $74,000 on Wednesday, despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Bitcoin’s spike allowed buyers to test the highest level in over a month, largely driven by investor confidence following the initial reaction to the United States and Israel’s attack on Iran.

Sentiment across crypto also improved after Kraken secured a landmark regulatory license in the US and Donald Trump’s support for the CLARITY Act.

The result was strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, with analysts at Glassnode noting that while “institutional demand remains tentative”, there are early signs of fresh re-accumulation.

As such, TON gained as risk appetite returned, helped by network activity around the creator economy.

On-chain data shows a surge in active addresses and daily transactions, while derivatives data has open interest up to $187 million.

Meanwhile, funding rates have flipped positive as traders bet on prices continuing higher.

TON price forecast

As the chart below shows, Toncoin’s price is up amid a technical breakout from a multi-month descending triangle.

The daily chart also highlights a channel breakout, with the token clearing the $1.32 resistance level.

Bulls have managed this on elevated volume to signal fresh enthusiasm.

The RSI continues its oversold bounce, piercing the neutral mark at 53.

With a bullish divergence in play, TON could eye resistance at the 50-day and 100-day simple moving average lines.

The SMAs currently signal potential supply wall risks at $1.42 and $1.52, respectively.

If buyers push above $2.00, the next targets would be around $2.87 and $3.50.

Toncoin price chart by TradingView

However, since prices remain in a broader downtrend, sellers have a slight chance of retaking control.

If altcoin momentum fades, support sits at $1.30 (channel boundary) and $1.18 (major YTD support).

However, while Toncoin peaked at $3.75 in August 2025, it flipped lower and went on to touch lows of $1.12 in February 2026 as cryptocurrencies suffered downward pressure.

Selling could accelerate if the Iran conflict escalates further and enters a prolonged war on multiple fronts.

Macro fears, including higher inflation amid skyrocketing energy prices, will exacerbate the outlook.