Aerospace rally heats up: are defense stocks now too expensive?

Aerospace and defense shares have climbed as geopolitical tensions support the group, but not every name looks cheap.

Specialty materials maker ATI is currently rated Hold, with a 12-month price target of $139.86, reflecting limited upside after a strong run and a relatively rich valuation.

Karman Holdings, meanwhile, has gained more than 10% during March and is approaching a key technical buy point, highlighting continued investor interest across the sector.

Sector rally puts valuations in focus

Aerospace and defense stocks have been rallying following the escalation in US-Iran tensions, which has strengthened demand expectations for the group.

The recent move has also brought renewed attention to leading names in the sector, with companies such as Curtiss-Wright appearing among top-performing stocks.

The broad rally has sharpened the focus on valuations.

While momentum continues to favor defense-aligned plays, the run-up has left investors weighing how much upside is already priced in and where risks could begin to limit further gains.

ATI’s setup: gains priced in, risks remain

ATI is rated Hold with a 12-month target of $139.86, supported by a forward P/E of roughly 34 times.

That valuation sits well above the S&P materials sector average of around 18 to 20 times, making it relatively expensive compared to peers.

The company has benefited from strong aerospace and defense tailwinds, including margin expansion.

However, risks remain. Input cost volatility and ongoing supply chain disruptions could weigh on profitability going forward.

ATI’s growth is also closely tied to commercial aerospace OEM production ramps.

Those ramps remain uncertain due to persistent supply chain bottlenecks, limiting visibility on future volumes and margins.

Karman Holdings nears a buy point

Karman Holdings is emerging as a stock to watch, with shares forming a base ahead of earnings and approaching a cup-with-handle buy point of $107.56.

The stock has risen more than 10% in March, reflecting continued interest in suppliers tied to defense demand.

Recent performance across the sector also highlights a growing divergence between winners and laggards as geopolitical tensions persist.

What to watch

For ATI, the focus is on how input costs and supply chain conditions evolve, and whether commercial aerospace production schedules stabilize.

With the stock already trading at a premium multiple, execution on margins and delivery timelines will be critical to justify further upside.

For Karman, attention shifts to earnings and whether results can support a breakout above $107.56.

Across the sector, ongoing rotation into defense-aligned names suggests momentum remains intact, though selectivity is increasing as valuations stretch.

The defense theme remains intact, but the gap between market enthusiasm and underlying fundamentals is narrowing.

Investors are likely to reward companies that can convert tailwinds into consistent execution and durable margins while navigating ongoing supply chain challenges.