Bitcoin price prediction as US-Iran considers a 45-day ceasefire

Bitcoin price ticked up slightly on Monday after a report said that the US and Iran were considering a longer ceasefire that could lead to the end of the war. BTC rose to $69,165 on Monday, up slightly from the weekend low of $66,000.

US and Iran are discussing a 45-day ceasefire 

Bitcoin price rose slightly after a report by Axios said that the US and Iran were considering a 45-day ceasefire that may lead to the end of the war. The report came from Barak Ravid, one of the most connected journalists in the industry.

The ceasefire proposal has been made by top negotiators, including Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey. This report came a day after Trump told Fox News that the US and Iran may reach an agreement as soon as Tuesday.

Still, Ravid warned that the chances of a deal are slim as Iran believes that it has an upper hand now that Trump is getting desperate, as evidenced by his profanity-ridden Truth Social post in which he pressured Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump has threatened to launch a major attack in Iran focusing on bridges and power plants, which is considered a war crime. Iran, on the other hand, has hinted that such a move would lead to an escalation, with the country focusing on infrastructure in other countries in the Middle East.

Bitcoin price would do well if the war ended for a few reasons. First, it would reduce the fear and volatility in the market, benefiting risky assets.

Second, such a deal would lead to lower crude oil prices, a notable thing considering that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has jumped to $112 and flipped Brent, the global benchmark.

Lower energy prices would help to reduce inflation, which analysts expect will continue rising as the Iran war continues. Data compiled by Investing.com shows that the upcoming US inflation report will show that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.4% in March from the previous 2.4%.

Bitcoin price is also rising as investors wait for the upcoming launch of the Morgan Stanley spot Bitcoin ETF on April 8. This will be the first ETF launched by a major Wall Street bank. It joins funds launched by companies like BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree, and Invesco.

Morgan Stanley’s ETF main benefit is that it will have a 0.14% expense ratio, cheaper than IBIT’s 0.25%. It will also be cheaper than Grayscale's BTC expense ratio of 0.15%.

The most recent results data show that spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost $164 million this month after adding $1.32 billion in the previous month. They now hold over $86 billion, with IBIT having over $52 billion.

Bitcoin price technical analysis 

BTC price chart | Source: TradingView 

The three-day timeframe chart shows that Bitcoin price has pulled back in the past few weeks, rising from a low of $60,400 in February to the current $69,000.

Bitcoin remains in an ascending channel, which is part of the formation of the bearish flag pattern, a common continuation sign in technical analysis. It has remained slightly below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at $71,457.

Bitcoin has constantly remained below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages since November last year. It has also remained below the Supertrend indicator, a sign that bears are still in control.

Therefore, Bitcoin will likely continue falling, potentially to the 61.8% retracement level at $58,330. A drop below that will lead to more downside towards the psychological level at $50,000.