Ethereum above $2,300: will DeFi turmoil derail the next rally?

The DeFi ecosystem has grabbed the news in recent days. The $292 million exploit of Kelp affected other leading DeFi protocols, including Aave.

As the leading DeFi blockchain, Ethereum is also feeling the impact, with DeFi platforms losing over $10 billion since the start of the week.

However, Ethereum has maintained its price above the $2,300 level and could rally higher in the near term.

The Ethereum network is also struggling with a surge in total fees captured on its mainnet over the past week.

The metric has spiked to its second-highest level since the October 10 leverage flush, reducing ETH's supply.

DeFi and fee challenges affect ETH’s price action

Following the Ethereum London upgrade, a surge in total fees has reduced ETH's circulating supply as the network burns base fees.

The surge can be traced to increased network activity following the $292 million KelpDAO exploit.

The hack triggered a massive capital flight from decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, with reports revealing that most of the funds were moved through THORChain.

Ethereum's total value locked (TVL) has dropped by roughly $10.7 billion to $44.7 billion over the past five days, according to DefiLlama data.

Furthermore, active addresses have trended downward.

However, the capital flight has not affected Ether’s price, as it is currently hovering above $2,300.

A potential reason for the resilience stems from positive sentiment surrounding the US extension of its ceasefire with Iran.

Furthermore, Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies continued its buying spree.

On-chain data reveals that three newly created wallets likely linked to BitMine received 100,000 ETH from digital asset custodian BitGo. 

BitMine has also staked an additional 93,600 ETH, pushing its total holdings to 3.489 million ETH.

Ethereum price forecast

The ETH/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as the broader market has retraced in the last few hours. 

On the 4-hour chart, ETH maintains a constructive near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), around $2,275 and $2,226, respectively.

The momentum indicators are also mildly positive, suggesting that the bulls could push the price higher in the near term. 

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in neutral territory near 53, and the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) is around mid-range.

These indicators suggest ongoing consolidation within an overall upward phase rather than stretched conditions.

If the bullish trend resumes, initial resistance will be encountered at the convergence of the 100-day EMA and the horizontal barrier at $2,388, with the $2,500 psychological level also a target. 

A daily candle break above this zone would open the way toward $2,746. Above this zone, Ether could have a clean run towards $3,000. 

On the downside, immediate support is seen around $2,308, ahead of the 20- and 50-day EMAs.

A break below these levels would expose the next static floors at $2,211 and $2,107.