AMD tops estimates, lifts forecast: so why is smart money walking away?

Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD delivered a clean beat-and-raise on Tuesday, but the stock still left investors with a harder question.

The investors are wondering if the quarter was good enough or if the bar is already too high.

AMD said first-quarter revenue rose 38% year over year to $10,3 billion (approx. R 175,5 billion), adjusted earnings came in at $1.37 a share, and data-center revenue jumped 57% to $5,8 billion (approx. R 99,3 billion).

Free cash flow climbed to $2,6 billion (approx. R 43,9 billion). The company then guided second-quarter revenue to $11,2 billion (approx. R 191,7 billion), above Wall Street’s estimate of about $10,5 billion (approx. R 179,8 billion).

Yet just ahead of the print, HSBC cut AMD to Hold, ARK Invest sold about $75 million (approx. R 1,3 billion) of stock, and insiders had sold roughly $64 million (approx. R 1,1 billion) over the prior three months.

AMD stock: The valuation problem

On the operating side, AMD did almost everything right.

Revenue beat expectations, EPS beat expectations, data-center sales outpaced forecasts, and the company’s free cash flow hit a record for the quarter.

CEO Lisa Su said the results marked “a clear inflection in our growth trajectory” and pointed to accelerating demand for AI infrastructure and stronger visibility around MI450 and Helios.

That's what bulls want to hear, and it helps explain why the shares initially reacted positively after the report.

But valuation is where the mood changed as HSBC’s note on May 4 said AMD had already rerated sharply, with the stock trading around $360.54 at the time and the firm’s $340 target implying roughly 6% downside from there.

HSBC also said the shares had moved from about 19 times 2027 earnings to 33 times, with the current P/E around 138.

Smart money steps back

That is the part retail investors often miss, as the stock was not only reacting to earnings, but also to positioning.

ARK Invest sold roughly 215,000 AMD shares worth about $75 million (approx. R 1,3 billion) in late April. Over the same period, insiders sold around $64 million (approx. R 1,1 billion) of stock.

Neither fact proves a top on its own, but together they signal that some of the most active market participants were taking chips off the table before the earnings release.

Northland’s move added more weight to that skepticism.

After more than a decade of bullish coverage, Gus Richard downgraded AMD to Market Perform and warned that 2027 estimates looked too optimistic.

He also pointed to the risk that big tech capex could cool and that competition from Nvidia and Intel could squeeze margins.

Saxo Bank framed the market’s real concern more bluntly: “Are you growing fast enough to justify the excitement?”

That is the exact question a stock like AMD now has to answer every quarter.

High growth, zero margin for error

AMD’s growth story still depends on a lot of things going well at once, including continued AI demand, smooth product ramps, and surprises from export controls or customer spending.

AMD sees its server CPU market growing above 35% a year through 2030, but it also flagged tighter manufacturing at TSMC and the possibility that memory and component costs could pressure the second half of the year.

That is a good business, but not a low-risk setup at 131 times earnings.