Commodity wrap: Oil falls as Trump pauses Iran attacks; gold, copper slip

Oil and gold prices fell on Tuesday as traders digested US President Donald Trump’s decision to pause a planned military strike on Iran, easing fears of immediate escalation in the Middle East. 

Crude futures slipped after Monday’s rebound, while gold held near recent highs on a weaker dollar and lingering geopolitical tension.

Oil prices ease after Trump’s pause

US crude futures fell more than 1% on Tuesday after Trump said he had “held off” a scheduled attack on Iran following weekend drone strikes on Gulf energy facilities.

The move tempered fears of supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows.

Brent crude was last down 1.3% at $110.59 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 0.9% to $103.45.

Both benchmarks had surged last week amid escalating rhetoric between Washington and Tehran.

Analysts told Reuters that traders are now watching whether the temporary pause leads to renewed diplomacy or a delayed strike. 

“The market remains extremely headline‑driven,” said one Singapore‑based energy strategist. “Every signal from the White House or Tehran can swing prices several dollars either way.”

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that commercial oil inventories are “depleting rapidly,” leaving only a few weeks of supply cushion. 

Meanwhile, the expiration of a Russia‑related sanctions waiver over the weekend added pressure on global crude flows, particularly for buyers in India and China.

Gold falls

Gold prices declined more than 1% at the time of writing as yields on US Treasury bills and the dollar strengthened. 

Gold on COMEX was quoted at $4,497.16, while silver fell 4% to $74.360 an ounce. Platinum also eased 2.3% to $1,931.75.

Benchmark 10‑year US Treasury yields hovered near their highest since February 2025, reflecting persistent inflation concerns driven by energy costs.

When Treasury yields rise, holding non‑interest‑bearing assets like gold becomes less attractive because investors can earn higher returns elsewhere. 

At the same time, a stronger dollar makes commodities priced in US currency more expensive for buyers using other currencies, dampening demand.

Traders are now focused on the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes on Wednesday, hoping to gain clearer insight into the central bank’s future monetary policy direction.

Copper and Industrial Metals

Industrial metals retreated as traders weighed the impact of potential supply disruptions in the Gulf and slower Chinese demand. 

The three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange was at $13,396 per ton, down 1.5%, while aluminium was up 0.5% at $3,580.50 per ton. 

Copper prices on the LME extended their decline on Monday, weighed down by inflationary concerns linked to the Iran conflict and disappointing Chinese economic data.

Rising tensions between Washington and Tehran, coupled with higher oil prices, have amplified fears of prolonged inflation and the likelihood of a tighter monetary policy response. 

That combination is dampening global growth prospects and eroding expectations for industrial demand, leaving copper and other base metals under pressure.

“The pullback comes after a strong run, with prices slipping from the recent highs hit just last week amid intensifying macro headwinds,” Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Economics said in a note. 

Weaker Chinese data, including softer activity in investment, retail and industrial output, added to concerns about demand, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

“Near-term, copper is likely to remain under pressure as macro risks dominate. The downside, though, may be limited by tight supply and responsive Chinese buying on dips,” Manthey said.

Market outlook

Commodity analysts expect volatility to persist through the week as geopolitical headlines dominate sentiment. “The pause in military action may calm nerves temporarily, but the underlying tension remains,” said a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Energy traders are watching for any signs of renewed talks between Washington and Tehran, while metals investors are focused on inflation data and central‑bank guidance.

For now, the commodity complex remains delicately balanced between geopolitical risk and macroeconomic uncertainty—a mix that could keep oil and gold prices swinging sharply in the days ahead.