Brent crude surges 3% as fresh US strikes on Iran rattle markets

Oil prices rose sharply on Thursday, with Brent crude pushing past $95 a barrel after fresh US strikes on Iran deepened fears of another squeeze on global energy supplies.

Brent, the global oil benchmark, climbed about 2.5% to around $95.45, while US West Texas Intermediate rose nearly 3% to about $92.68.

The move came after US Central Command said it had launched additional “self-defence strikes” on Iranian targets.

Tehran responded by announcing a halt to all vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

US strikes rattle markets, Hormuz in a ‘supervised pause’

The latest jump in crude prices was driven by a familiar worry that the market still has no clear view on when normal shipping through Hormuz will resume.

CENTCOM said the new strikes were aimed at multiple targets in Iran, marking another escalation after a fragile pause in fighting earlier this year.

Iran’s military command then said the strait would be closed to oil tankers and commercial ships, warning that vessels attempting passage could be targeted.

The US military has said commercial ships continue to move in and out of the strait.

But shipping specialists remain cautious, because limited transit is not the same as a reopened waterway.

Maritime intelligence firm Windward put it bluntly in an assessment reported by Safety4Sea: “The strait has not reopened, it is in a supervised pause.”

The line points to a tense situation in Hormuz, as some ships may still be moving, but the route is operating under political and military pressure.

Wall Street warns: The upside risk isn’t gone

Analysts say oil’s next move depends on whether the latest escalation delays a broader reopening of Hormuz.

Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven have warned that “the situation remains fluid” and that risks to the bank’s oil-price forecasts remain “skewed to the upside."

Goldman has outlined a scenario in which Brent could average $120 in the third quarter if severely limited traffic through Hormuz continues for longer.

That is not the bank’s base case, but it explains why the market remains so sensitive to every military update.

Even a partial restriction can tighten supply if shipowners, insurers, and energy companies are unwilling to take the risk.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that investors are worried that flows through Hormuz could stay restricted for longer.

Citi, meanwhile, has warned that a lasting oil shock would not stop at fuel costs.

Higher crude prices can feed into freight, chemicals, food, and consumer goods, creating the kind of second-round inflation effects central banks find harder to ignore.

For now, the oil prices are rising steadily, not chaotically. But analysts say the risk of another sharp jump in crude prices is still very real.