Markets eye supply boost as US-Iran deal faces its first shipping test

A liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker is heading toward the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the US–Iran pact took effect, signaling cautious optimism that shipping lanes may reopen after months of disruption, according to a Bloomberg report.

The voyage is being closely watched by traders and governments alike, as it could mark the beginning of a gradual return to normal shipping flows.

The move marks a significant test of the interim agreement announced earlier this week.

Tanker movement signals tentative reopening

According to the report, ship‑tracking data showed an LNG tanker bound for Asia moving toward Hormuz on Thursday, just hours after Washington and Tehran agreed to extend a fragile ceasefire and reopen the strait.

The vessel’s progress is being closely monitored by traders and governments alike, as Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil and LNG flows and has been effectively blocked since February, when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

The tanker’s voyage is seen as the first tangible sign that the pact is beginning to ease restrictions.

Analysts said that while the passage is symbolically important, it remains uncertain whether broader shipping traffic will resume quickly, given the risks of mines, insurance costs, and lingering military tensions.

Terms of the US–Iran pact

The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran extends the ceasefire announced in April by another 60 days.

The deal is designed to provide negotiators time to work toward a permanent truce while allowing limited shipping to resume.

Iran has agreed to begin clearing mines from the strait within a 30‑day window, after which vessels from all countries would be permitted to navigate freely.

In return, Washington has signaled its willingness to suspend certain sanctions during the negotiation period.

Market reaction

Energy markets responded cautiously. Brent crude futures remained below $80 a barrel, near three‑month lows, as traders priced in the possibility of increased supply.

LNG prices also softened, reflecting expectations that flows from the Gulf could gradually normalise.

Investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have lowered their oil price forecasts in recent days, citing the pact as a key driver of reduced geopolitical risk premiums.

Goldman expects Persian Gulf exports could return to pre‑war levels by late July, while Morgan Stanley projects a slower recovery stretching into the autumn.

Industry concerns

Despite the optimism, industry officials told Bloomberg that a full return to pre‑war production and refining levels could take weeks, months, or even years.

Insurance companies remain wary of underwriting voyages through Hormuz until security guarantees are clearer.

Shipowners are also waiting for evidence that Iran will honor its commitments to end transit‑fee collection and allow safe passage.

The LNG tanker’s movement is therefore viewed as a tentative test case rather than a definitive reopening.

Analysts caution that any renewed hostilities or delays in mine‑clearing could quickly derail progress.

Broader geopolitical context

The pact comes amid wider geopolitical maneuvering. US President Donald Trump has threatened to resume bombing if Iran fails to “behave,” underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire.

Meanwhile, global markets are balancing optimism over increased supply with concerns about China’s slowing economy and elevated inflation risks in the US and Europe.

For now, the LNG tanker’s voyage through Hormuz represents a cautious step toward normalisation.

Whether it heralds a broader reopening of one of the world’s most vital energy arteries will depend on how faithfully both sides implement the agreement in the weeks ahead.