Coinbase, Circle stocks climb as analysts see Bitcoin-linked upside

Shares of Circle Internet Group and Coinbase Global moved higher on Wednesday after William Blair said many of the key risks facing both companies are already reflected in investor expectations.

The firm also highlighted their potential to benefit from any recovery in Bitcoin prices.

Circle CRCL shares gained more than 3% in midday trading, while Coinbase stock rose nearly 2%.

Bitcoin was trading around $64,900, up about 0.5% over the previous 24 hours after reaching an intraday high of $65,500.

The cryptocurrency continued to struggle to hold above the $65,000 level.

William Blair cuts estimates but remains optimistic

William Blair said investors should continue to stay invested in Coinbase as spot trading volumes potentially bottom out, despite lowering its financial estimates for the crypto exchange.

The firm said both Coinbase and Circle offer "outsized leverage to a bitcoin recovery."

William Blair also warned that consensus estimates across the sector are likely to continue falling and revised its own forecasts lower.

The brokerage reduced its 2026 revenue estimate for Coinbase by 12% and its 2027 forecast by 13%. It also lowered EBITDA estimates by 34% for both years.

Despite those reductions, the firm expects profitability to recover after this year, stating that EBITDA "seems set to trough" in the second half of 2026 before rebounding in 2027.

Separately, Piper Sandler lowered its price target on Coinbase to $155 from $170 while maintaining a Neutral rating.

Analyst Patrick Moley said subdued cryptocurrency trading has contrasted with record options activity and the strongest quarter on record for US cash equities trading volumes.

He added that prediction markets and perpetual futures "were the story" of the second quarter, with the FIFA World Cup driving what he described as "massive" growth across the prediction markets industry.

Looking ahead, Moley said investors are paying close attention to "significant investor attention on the perpetual future threat," highlighting increasing competition as more trading activity shifts toward newer products such as perpetual futures.

ARK Invest continues buying Circle shares

While analysts updated their outlooks, Cathie Wood's ARK Invest continued to increase its exposure to Circle despite the stock's recent weakness.

ARK purchased another 220,000 Circle shares across three actively managed exchange-traded funds on Tuesday.

Based on Circle's Tuesday closing price of $63.22, the acquisition was valued at approximately $13.9 million.

The latest purchase brings ARK's disclosed Circle purchases during July to 725,517 shares.

The investment firm had previously acquired 287,609 shares on July 1 and 217,896 shares on July 9.

Circle has become a significant holding across ARK's innovation-focused portfolios.

As of Wednesday, the company represented 4.37% of the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF, making it the fund's seventh-largest position with a value of roughly $33 million.

Circle also accounted for 3.35% of the flagship ARK Innovation ETF, ranking as its ninth-largest holding and carrying a value of approximately $218 million.

Despite Wednesday's gains, both stocks remain under pressure this year. Coinbase shares have fallen nearly 30% in 2026, while Circle stock is down almost 20%.