XRP stalls below key EMAs: is this recovery weaker than it looks?

Ripple's XRP has been consolidating over the past few hours and is trading around $1.13. 

The performance comes as improving risk appetite sparked a broader recovery across the cryptocurrency market.

The mixed market performance follows reports that mediators are working toward a 10-day halt in hostilities between the United States and Iran, aiming to revive discussions around a previously signed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). 

While the news has helped stabilize market sentiment, ongoing military exchanges continue to keep investors on edge.

US-Iran conflict continues to weigh on risk appetite

Despite reports of diplomatic efforts, the conflict between the US and Iran remains unresolved.

The US military carried out its tenth consecutive day of strikes, with explosions reported in Sirik, Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island, Chabahar, and Konarak. 

Iran responded by launching attacks against US assets across the Gulf region, maintaining elevated geopolitical uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump also warned Iran of further consequences following casualties among American service members, adding another layer of uncertainty for global financial markets.

While improving geopolitical conditions could encourage a broader recovery, any escalation in the conflict may quickly reverse recent gains.

In an email to Invezz, Shawn Young, Chief Analyst, MEXC Research, noted that the ongoing Middle East conflict could continue to keep pressure on XRP and other cryptocurrencies.

Despite broader market uncertainty, XRP's on-chain activity has begun to improve.

Data from Santiment shows that the number of active XRP Ledger (XRPL) addresses has remained near 23,000 on Monday and Tuesday, up from approximately 20,000 recorded last Sunday.

The increase suggests more users are sending and receiving XRP, indicating renewed network participation. 

Rising active addresses are often viewed as a positive signal, reflecting stronger user engagement that could support price recovery over the medium term if the trend continues.

XRP technical outlook: Bulls target break above key resistance

The XRP/USD 4-hour chart remains bullish but inefficient as XRP continues to recover from recent lows near $1.00, although significant resistance remains overhead.

The token is still trading below its 50-day EMA at $1.15, 100-day EMA at $1.24, and 200-day EMA at $1.44. 

These moving averages form a strong resistance zone that bulls must overcome before a sustained uptrend can develop.

Momentum indicators, however, are beginning to improve. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to around 59, moving above the neutral level and indicating strengthening buying pressure. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to rise in positive territory, suggesting bullish momentum is gradually building.

Although these indicators favor further upside, XRP has yet to confirm a complete trend reversal while it remains below its major moving averages.

The first obstacle for buyers sits at the 50-day EMA around $1.15.

A successful breakout above this level could open the door for a move toward the 100-day EMA near $1.24, followed by the more significant 200-day EMA around $1.44.

On the downside, $1.13 now serves as a short-term pivot, while the previous breakout level near $1.09 represents critical support. 

A daily close below this area would likely invalidate the current recovery and increase the risk of a deeper correction.

For now, improving on-chain activity and recovering technical momentum offer cautious optimism for XRP, but geopolitical uncertainty and key resistance levels continue to limit the strength of the rally.