Crude oil price forecast: why Goldman sees Brent at $85 despite Hormuz risk

Oil prices held close to six-week highs on Tuesday as fresh Iranian threats against energy infrastructure kept a sizeable geopolitical premium embedded in both Brent and WTI.

Brent traded around $97.5 a barrel in Asian hours, while West Texas Intermediate was near $92.9, extending gains after the US holiday.

Both benchmarks have risen sharply over the past week as fighting around the Persian Gulf intensified and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted.

Hormuz disruption remains the biggest support for oil

The market is increasingly focused on what is physically moving through Hormuz rather than on military headlines alone.

Kpler data showed just seven commodity vessels transited the strait on Monday, down from eight on Sunday.

The average over the previous 10 days was about 10 ships a day, the lowest since May.

Some vessels may be travelling with tracking systems switched off, but the figures still point to heavily constrained traffic.

Iran has also threatened to target energy infrastructure across the Gulf if the US launches further attacks.

Tehran is separately discussing a shipping arrangement with Oman, although the details, and what it would mean for commercial access to Hormuz remain uncertain.

ANZ Research analysts said that the latest attacks reinforce the risk of a prolonged US-Iran standoff and continued disruption to regional energy flows.

Tight US fuel stocks add another layer of support

The supply strain is not limited to the Middle East.

Latest US Energy Information Administration data showed commercial crude inventories fell 4.5 million barrels to 424.5 million in the week through August 28.

Gasoline stocks dropped to 205.7 million barrels, around 6% below their five-year seasonal average.

Distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, stood at 104.2 million barrels and were about 14% below the five-year average.

That matters because refined-product tightness has become one of the strongest parts of the oil market and can pull crude prices higher even when headline crude supply remains adequate.

Still, oil continues to leave the Gulf through Hormuz and alternative routes.

West Asian crude shipments are running at roughly 11 million barrels a day, compared with about 18 million before the Iran conflict, helping explain why Brent has remained below $100 despite severe disruption.

Analysts see limited room for a major pullback

The combination of physical tightness and geopolitical risk has also pushed banks to rethink their forecasts.

Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 forecasts by $5 a barrel to $85 for Brent and $80 for WTI, reflecting expectations that Middle East shipping disruptions could persist.

Even so, the bank’s Brent forecast remains well below current prices near $97. Goldman’s more cautious year-end view reflects the fact that substantial Gulf crude is still reaching the market, alternative export routes remain available and higher non-OPEC supply could offset part of the disruption.

Elevated prices could also begin to weigh on demand if the conflict drags on.

That creates a clear tension in the outlook. Hormuz disruption and geopolitical risk are keeping Brent supported in the short term, but Goldman still expects some of that premium to fade by December.