AVAX could dip below $9.0 despite record ETF inflows

The cryptocurrency market has been consolidating since the start of the week, with some coins currently in the red.

AVAX, the native coin of the Avalanche blockchain, is down by 0.5% in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $9.04.

The decline comes despite VanEck’s spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) VAVX recording its highest single-day inflow on Tuesday since its launch in January.

The dip indicates a disconnect between institutional flows and short-term price action.

The mixed signals from on-chain and derivatives metrics continue to negatively affect AVAX’s price. 

AVAX is still below $10 despite institutional demand

AVAX is down by roughly 1% in the last 24 hours and is now trading below $10.

The bearish performance comes despite growing institutional adoption.

According to SoSoValue, VanEck's spot ETF, VAVX, recorded a $4.26 million inflow on Tuesday, marking its highest single-day inflow since its launch in January.

However, the institutional demand wasn’t enough to push AVAX’s price higher, indicating persistent selling pressure and limited conviction among traders.

Additionally, CryptoQuant's summary data indicate early signs of a bullish run, with multiple large whale orders, cooling market conditions, and buy-side dominance in both the spot and futures markets.

These factors could contribute to a potential AVAX recovery in the near term. 

However, retail demand remains low as the Avalanche futures Open Interest (OI) has dropped to $395 million and has been steadily declining since mid-January.

The OI is now approaching the February 11 low of $378 million. 

The funding rates have flipped positive and now support a positive outlook.

The metric now reads 0.0052%, indicating that the longs are paying shorts, suggesting bullish sentiment toward AVAX.

The on-chain and derivatives data suggest indecision among investors, and this could affect AVAX’s chances of a sustained recovery in the coming days and weeks. 

AVAX could retest the $7.55 low

The AVAX/USD 4-hour chart is extremely bearish as Avalanche found support around the daily support at $8.78 last week. 

It failed to sustain its recovery and has lost 5% of its value since Sunday. At press time, AVAX is trading at $9.04.

If the price correction continues, AVAX could dip lower and retest the daily support at $8.78.

A close below this level could see AVAX decline toward the February 6 low at $7.55.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart reads 47, below the neutral level of 50 and points downward, indicating bearish momentum gaining traction. 

However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover during the weekend, which remains in place, suggesting that upside bias is still in play.

If the bulls push higher, Avalanche could extend its rally to the key psychological level at $10.