Stigende jetbrændstofpriser pga. Iran truer US-flyselskabers indtjening

Investorer i flyselskaber udviser fornyet forsigtighed, da stigende oliepriser forbundet med konflikten i Iran truer med at presse indtjeningen i den amerikanske luftfartssektor.

Selvom rejseefterspørgslen i United States indtil videre forbliver robust, advarer analytikere om, at stigende brændstofomkostninger lægger betydeligt pres på flyselskabernes marginer, hvilket har ført til sænkede resultatforventninger og øget usikkerhed for aktionærerne.

Stigning i jetbrændstofpriser presser marginerne

Crude oil and jet fuel prices have climbed sharply amid concerns that the Iran conflict could escalate. United Airlines shares fell 6.6%, American Airlines dropped 6.5%, and Delta Air Lines lost 4.6% on Thursday although most of them pared some of the losses.

The US Global Jets ETF declined 4.1% after surging nearly 7% over the previous two days. Crude oil futures climbed 12.1% Thursday, reversing recent declines as the geopolitical risk outlook worsened.

Analytikere bemærker, at kombinationen af faste omkostninger og kortsigtede bookinger gør virkningen af højere brændstofpriser umiddelbar.

Melius Research-analytiker Conor Cunningham analyserede en konkurrencepræget indenrigs fritidsrute og fandt, at en typisk 737-800-flyvning er gået fra et $1,500 overskud til et $3,900 tab ved de nuværende brændstofpriser.

"The math is straightforward," Cunningham wrote, "fuel costs have nearly doubled while nonfuel costs and revenue are largely fixed, 'locked in by bookings made before the conflict began.'"

Rejseefterspørgslen holder, men risici lurer

På trods af de højere omkostninger er rejseefterspørgslen i USA endnu ikke faldet. Data fra the Transportation Security Administration viste 78.54 million passagerer screened at airport checkpoints in March, up from 77.23 million a year ago.

TD Cowen-analytiker Tom Fitzgerald noted that overall air-carrier traffic rose 1% in March, outpacing the 0.5% increase in available seats. However, he warned that the full effect of prolonged high fuel costs may still materialize, potentially curbing travel demand in the months ahead.

"The likelihood of a prolonged period of higher energy prices" has investors concerned about future revenue, Fitzgerald said, prompting him to reduce price targets for several major airlines.

Investorernes forsigtighed intensiveres

As the Iran conflict continues to influence crude markets, airlines with higher leverage and fuel sensitivity, including JetBlue Airways and Alaska Air Group, are expected to face the toughest challenges.

TD Cowen lowered its price target for United Airlines to $120 from $140, while maintaining a Buy rating, and highlighted Delta as the most defensive in the current environment.

Fitzgerald emphasized that "further volatility" in oil markets could create both near-term challenges and potential buying opportunities, but the sector faces a delicate balancing act between rising operational costs and sustained travel demand.

With earnings season for airlines beginning April 8 with Delta, investors will closely monitor whether carriers can navigate a landscape of elevated fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty without eroding profitability.