Here's why Bitcoin's next rally may fade

Bitcoin’s rally above $76,800 could trigger a fresh wave of profit-taking pressure, according to CryptoQuant.

In a Wednesday report, the analytics platform said that Bitcoin’s rally above $76,000, its highest level since early February, has brought the market close to a key resistance zone where past rebounds have stalled. 

The move had been supported by earlier undervaluation, a brief cooling in US-Iran tensions, and a weaker US dollar.

Prices have since pulled back to around $74,800, leaving the asset testing what traders refer to as the realized price band near $76,800. 

That level has historically acted as a ceiling during bear market recoveries, as investors who bought higher look to exit once they return to breakeven.

“This band capped the January 2026 bear market rally precisely at this level before prices reversed lower, and the same dynamic may repeat if selling pressure builds from current levels,” said CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno. 

“The lower band at $67,600 now serves as the primary near-term support if the resistance holds,” Moren said.

Exchange flows and whale activity raise caution

CryptoQuant data shows that the recent price climb has been met with a noticeable pickup in exchange inflows, often viewed as a signal that holders are preparing to sell.

Hourly inflows rose to nearly 11,000 BTC, the highest since late December 2025.

“In a comparable episode in March 2026, hourly inflows reached 9,000 BTC, with 63% large-deposit concentration, which preceded a short-term price correction,” Moreno said.

On the 24-hour scale, inflows to exchanges were much higher, according to fellow CryptoQuant researcher Darkfrost. See below.

Large holders appear to be driving much of the activity.

The average Bitcoin deposit to exchanges climbed to 2.25 BTC, the highest daily level since July 2024, with several individual transfers to Binance exceeding 1,000 BTC.

“This pattern mirrors dynamics observed in January 2026, when the average deposit peaked at almost 2 BTC ahead of bitcoin’s sharp decline from $100,000 to $60,000,” Moreno added.

Data also shows the share of large deposits jumping from below 10% to above 40% of total inflows within days.

According to Moreno, readings above that threshold have historically aligned with stronger selling pressure in the short term.

Profit-taking warning plays out

Moreno had warned that if Bitcoin’s realized profits moved above the $1 billion mark, it could intensify selling pressure and raise the chances of a rally stalling or reversing. 

“If bitcoin sustains above $76,000 or pushes higher toward the $76,800 traders’ realized price, daily realized profits could accelerate meaningfully toward and above the $1 billion mark, adding further selling pressure and increasing the probability of a rally stall or reversal,” Moreno said.

In a follow-up update, Moreno noted that realized profits surged to $1.14 billion, one of the highest readings so far this year, pointing to a sharp pickup in profit-taking as prices approached key resistance.

With Bitcoin still trading near a historically sensitive zone, the latest spike in realized gains adds weight to concerns that the rally may struggle to extend unless buying demand absorbs the growing sell-side pressure.