Novo Nordisk gains 7% on Q1 beat: is it too late to buy NVO stock?

Novo Nordisk gains 7% on Q1 beat: is it too late to buy NVO stock?
Devesh Kumar
06 May 2026, 12:36 PM

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Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Buy NVO. Q1 beat plus clear oral Wegovy traction (DKK 2.26B pill sales; 200k weekly prescriptions; 1.3M in the quarter) is the first real proof the growth engine is working. Guidance narrows the decline (adjusted sales/op profit down 4% to 12% vs prior 5% to 13%), and the stock is no longer priced for perfection (~12x trailing earnings). Thesis: the market is starting to re-rate Novo from “declining” to “stabilizing with a new growth driver.”

Key Risk: Oral Wegovy demand stalls after launch—prescriptions and sales growth roll over, forcing Novo back to wider 2026 declines.

Eli Lilly (LLY)

Sell LLY. If Novo’s oral Wegovy uptake is real and accelerates, it pressures the GLP-1 market share and pricing power that LLY has relied on. The second-order read: Novo’s pill reduces friction (adherence, convenience), which can shift incremental patients away from injectable-only options, making LLY’s growth look less durable even if its own numbers are fine.

Key Risk: LLY’s own pipeline/production keeps it dominant—Novo’s pill doesn’t translate into meaningful share loss for LLY.

  • Q1 earnings beat expectations, sending shares higher in early trading.
  • Wegovy pill sales hit DKK 2.26B with strong prescription growth.
  • Full-year outlook improved, but still points to a modest contraction.

Novo Nordisk’s rebound got another lift on Wednesday after the Danish drugmaker delivered a first-quarter beat and showed that its new Wegovy pill is gaining traction faster than Wall Street expected.

The NVO stock jumped about 7% in early trading after the results, extending a strong run that has already pushed it well off its March lows.

That matters because this is becoming a test of whether Novo can turn a bruising year into a real recovery.

The first quarter did not erase the pressure, but it did offer the clearest evidence yet that the oral Wegovy launch is working.

Numbers that moved the Novo Nordisk stock

The headline beat was solid as Novo reported adjusted operating profit of DKK 32.86 billion ($4.76 billion), above expectations, while adjusted sales came in at DKK 70.06 billion ($10.16 billion).

More importantly for investors, the company said Wegovy pill sales reached DKK 2.26 billion ($330 million) in the quarter.

Novo added that the pill had surpassed 200,000 weekly prescriptions by the week ending April 17, with about 1.3 million prescriptions in the quarter and more than 2 million since launch.

That is why the market is treating this as more than a routine earnings beat, as the company finally has a new growth driver that is showing up in the numbers.

There is a technicality that matters.

Novo’s reported sales were much higher than adjusted sales because the quarter included a large one-off provision reversal tied to the US 340B drug pricing program.

Excluding that item, adjusted sales were still down 4% at constant exchange rates and adjusted operating profit fell 6%.

In other words, the pill launch is helping, but it has not yet flipped the overall trend back to growth.

Why the outlook upgrade matters

Even so, investors welcomed the guidance change.

Novo now expects both adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit to fall 4% to 12% this year at constant exchange rates, an improvement from the prior forecast for a 5% to 13% decline.

That is still a down year, but it is a narrower one, and in a stock that had been hit hard by disappointment after disappointment, even a modest improvement can matter.

The company’s own message was that Wegovy’s strong early uptake, alongside continued growth in international operations, gave it enough confidence to lift the outlook.

Is it too late to buy NVO stock now?

Probably not for investors with patience, but it may be too early to call this a clean turnaround.

On current market data, Novo trades at roughly 12 times trailing earnings, far below the premium multiple it once enjoyed.

That is part of the attraction, as the stock is no longer priced like a perfect growth machine.

But valuation alone is not enough here.

Novo’s own guidance still points to a decline in 2026, and the business is still navigating pricing pressure, a tougher competitive backdrop and the need to prove that Wegovy pill demand holds up beyond the launch phase.