Why Micron earnings aren't driving Intel, AMD shares higher?

Micron Technology stock is soaring this morning after the company posted blockbuster Q3 results, featuring a nearly 350% year-over-year increase in revenue to $41.46 billion.

Still, the broader semiconductor complex is not following Micron’s lead – with Intel INTC, Advanced Micro Devices Inc, and even Nvidia failing to participate in the rally on Jun. 25.

While that may seem a bit puzzling on the surface, there’s actually three very simple reasons why these chipmakers aren’t moving in sync with Micron stock today.

Why chip stocks aren’t rallying in sync with MU shares

In its earnings release, Micron confirmed that its High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), the hyper-fast memory stacked directly onto artificial intelligence (AI) chips, is completely sold out through year-end, with customers locking in $22 billion in agreements.

While that’s incredible for MU shares, it actually highlights a severe industry supply constraint.

If the likes Nvidia or AMD can’t secure enough HBM from suppliers (Micron or SK Hynix), they can’t ship their top-tier AI graphic processing units (GPUs), including the Blackwell architecture or the MI300 series.

Micron Technology’s tight supply cap confirms that compute chipmakers are physically limited in how fast they can scale their own near-term revenues – a broader concern that is clearly reflected in their muted performance today.

Stretched valuations are weighing on Intel and AMD

The broader semiconductor sector has been dealing with an intense multi-day wave of profit-taking.

Investors are reassessing stretched valuations and demanding that astronomical capital expenditure from big tech hyperscalers translates into immediate profits.

Because names like Intel and AMD have already priced in massive, flawless growth, a solid update from a sub-component supplier like Micron is being treated as a “sell-the-news” event for the rest of the tech stack.

Note that Advanced Micro Devices Inc and INTC are currently going for about 85x and more than 200x forward earnings; so the initial pre-market gap up simply gave institutional traders a “highly liquid” exit point to lock in profits.

INTC and AMD face idiosyncratic challenges

Continued pressure on Intel and AMD shares makes sense also because these companies actually face entirely different architectural and competitive pressures.

INTC is battling high turnaround execution costs as it positions itself as a Western foundry choice, and Advanced Micro Devices is locked in an expensive market-share war with Nvidia in the data center.

A spike in memory pricing pads MU’s margins immediately, but it doesn’t solve Intel’s execution timeline or alter AMD’s market share positioning against Nvidia.

That said, Wall Street hasn’t thrown in the towel on either. Both remain “Buy” rated among experts, with the most ambitious price targets calling for well over 20% upside from their current levels.

Neither of the two chipmakers, however, pays a dividend to attract income-focused investors.