Why Nvidia stock is down over 1% today even as AI peers are surging

Nvidia stock fell about 1.5% on Tuesday to around $227, taking a breather after three consecutive sessions of gains as broader markets came under pressure from rising oil prices and renewed Middle East tensions.

The pullback was notable because several major semiconductor stocks moved higher.

Intel surged more than 8% after Northland Capital Markets analyst Gus Richard upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform.

AMD gained about 5%, while Broadcom rose roughly 3%. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector index was also up around 2%.

The broader market moved in the opposite direction. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 574 points, or 1.1%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.3%.

US markets were closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

Nvidia trails semiconductor peers

Oil prices remained a key source of pressure for equities on Tuesday as West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose for a sixth consecutive session, extending their longest winning streak since March.

Brent crude was trading around $98 a barrel as tensions between the US and Iran escalated over the weekend.

Against that backdrop, Nvidia’s decline comes after a strong run over recent months.

The stock is up about 24% over the past six months and remains just below its record high of $236.54.

However, Nvidia has significantly underperformed some semiconductor peers over the same period, with both AMD and Intel gaining more than 100%.

Cantor maintains $350 Nvidia target

Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Overweight rating on Nvidia and maintained a $350 price target.

The firm highlighted continued demand for AI infrastructure while acknowledging supply constraints across the semiconductor industry.

Analyst C.J. Muse said investors remain divided over the durability of the AI investment cycle as macroeconomic and debt concerns weigh on markets.

Cantor also emphasized Nvidia’s position as TSMC’s largest customer and argued that the stock trades at the cheapest valuation among compute companies based on calendar 2028 earnings estimates.

The firm also believes Nvidia remains under-owned by both hedge funds and long-only investors.

Muse addressed Nvidia’s high-bandwidth memory specifications, characterizing HBM de-specification as an economic decision aimed at optimizing gross margins and GPU sales around a finite number of bits.

Morningstar sees further upside

Earlier this month, Morningstar raised its fair value estimate to $310 from $280, implying roughly 30% upside from the stock’s current level.

Nvidia reported $96 billion in fiscal second-quarter revenue, up 106% from a year earlier and above its $91 billion guidance.

The company expects October-quarter revenue of $108 billion, ahead of FactSet consensus of $105 billion.

Morningstar identified Nvidia’s fiscal 2028 outlook as the most significant part of the earnings report.

Nvidia expects revenue growth of 70% next year, implying nearly $700 billion in total revenue compared with Morningstar and FactSet estimates of roughly $570 billion.

The outlook reinforces the longer-term bullish case, even as Nvidia’s shares pause after their recent gains.