Kulta tavoittelee $4,750/oz läpimurtoa; Fedin korkopolku ja Iranin jännitteet keskiössä

Kullan hinnat nousivat perjantaina, asettaen jalometallin viikoittaisen nousun suuntaan, kun sijoittajien pelot inflaatiosta ja nousevista koroista laimenivat, vaikka optimismi mahdollisesta Yhdysvaltojen ja Iranin rauhansopimuksesta säilyi viimeaikaisista jännitteistä huolimatta.

Kulta on ollut tähän mennessä tapahtumarikas viikko: hinnat kokivat jyrkät tappiot maanantaina ja nousivat sitten kahden viikon huippuihin öljymarkkinoiden myynnin jälkeen. 

Asiantuntijoiden mukaan kultasijoittajat ovat kuitenkin jääneet kahden yhtä voimakkaan, vastakkaisiin suuntiin vaikuttavan voiman väliin.

Tästä syystä markkina on tällä hetkellä jäissä ja hinnat liikkuvat laajalla välillä. 

Market activity and the geopolitical factor

On Thursday, the COMEX gold contract closed $6 lower or a decline of just 0.13% for the day. 

The contract had risen sharply on Thursday, before pairing the gains.

Despite the drop, the overall performance of gold is remarkable.

Gold futures are currently trading over 41% higher than they were a year ago.

The significant 52-week price range, extending from a low of $3,123 to a high of $5,626, clearly illustrates the substantial volatility and activity in this market.

The $6 drop from a price point over $4,600 is insignificant in magnitude, it's market 'noise’, according to Kitco.com.

However, the nature of this noise provides insight. 

Gold neither sold off sharply when optimistic headlines about Iran emerged, nor did it rally in response to hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve.

Instead, the slight downward drift suggested the market is currently held in balance between two powerful, opposing forces.

Despite the most serious challenge yet to their month-long ceasefire, as the United States and Iran exchanged fire on Thursday, Iran later stated that the situation had returned to normal, while the US indicated it did not desire an escalation.

Since the start of the war in late February, gold prices have dropped by over 10%.

This decline is largely due to rising oil prices, which can fuel inflation and increase the probability of higher interest rates. 

Although gold is generally viewed as a hedge against inflation, high interest rates typically exert downward pressure on the non-yielding asset.

Monetary policy, economic data, and the price outlook

Investors are currently focused on the impending monthly US employment report, expected later today, as a key indicator for determining the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path. 

Economists surveyed by Reuters project that nonfarm payrolls saw a modest increase of 62,000 last month, a significant drop following the 178,000 rebound recorded in March.

The Federal Reserve currently represents the biggest obstacle for gold, according to analysts at Kitco.com. 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% for the third meeting in a row at its April 29 gathering.

This meeting may be Chair Jerome Powell's last before Kevin Warsh takes over on May 15. 

Although the decision to hold the rate was anticipated, the 8-4 vote was highly divisive the most fractured Federal Reserve decision since October 1992.

“Yet for all the rate pressure, gold has not collapsed, and Thursday's relatively contained decline is evidence of the countervailing force: geopolitical uncertainty is providing a durable floor,” the analysts at Kitco said in a report.

A sustained rally past the $4,750 mark would indicate that the bulls are back in charge, making it a key level for traders to watch, Kitco said.

Conversely, a close under $4,650 would suggest that anxieties about interest rates are starting to drive market action, the report added.

At the time of writing, the COMEX gold contract was at $4,734 per ounce, up 0.5%. Silver was at $80.705 an ounce, up 0.7% from the previous close.