Apple’s foldable iPhone moment is here: why buying the stock could backfire

Apple is preparing for its biggest product event in years on Wednesday, but investors tempted to buy before the unveiling may want to look beyond the excitement surrounding what is expected to be its first foldable iPhone.

The event begins at 1:00 PM ET and will be the first product launch led by CEO John Ternus, who succeeded Tim Cook on September 1.

Apple stock NASDAQ:AAPL fell 1.2% to $316.22 on Tuesday but remains up about 16% this year.

Investors expect a new form factor, yet Wall Street is also bracing for higher prices, a rich valuation and a sell-the-news reaction.

Apple may have to choose between sticker shock and margins

Pricing is the most immediate risk as rising memory costs have become a problem across smartphones, and analysts expect Apple to pass at least part of that pressure on to customers.

KeyBanc Capital Markets estimates the iPhone 18 Pro could rise by $150 to $1,249, while the Pro Max could increase by $200 to $1,399. It models the foldable, sometimes referred to as the Fold or Ultra, at $2,199.

Analysts warned that broad increases could trigger “sticker shock” and hurt unit demand. More selective increases could protect volumes but leave investors questioning margins and further hikes.

KeyBanc remains Underweight with a $250 target and views the September 9 launch as a potential negative catalyst.

That creates a difficult first test for Ternus. An impressive foldable may excite consumers, but investors also need to know what Apple is asking them to pay.

The foldable could be a hit and still not transform Apple

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring estimates that Apple’s foldable iPhone could generate about $14 billion of December-quarter revenue. The bank expects strong initial demand, constrained supply and 7 million to 8 million builds in the second half of 2026.

But high revenue does not automatically mean Apple has created a large new market.

MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett raised his Apple target to $304 while keeping a Neutral rating.

Speaking on CNBC, Moffett said most foldable sales could represent cannibalisation because buyers are likely to come from Apple’s existing ecosystem rather than new customers.

If a Pro Max customer switches to a more expensive foldable, Apple can lift average selling prices without expanding its user base.

The market therefore needs evidence that the device can create incremental demand, shorten upgrade cycles or deepen spending, rather than reshuffle premium iPhone sales.

Even a great launch can become a sell-the-news event

The final problem is expectations, as Apple stock has gained about 18% in 2026, meaning investors are approaching the event with substantial optimism reflected in the stock.

History offers little reassurance. KeyBanc said Apple shares have averaged a 0.72% decline on iPhone announcement days over the past five years and a 1.22% decline five trading days later.

Morgan Stanley remains constructive, but its longer-term thesis depends on earnings revisions rather than presentation-night excitement.

Still, the stock needs more than an attractive device.

Pricing must hold without damaging demand, the foldable must create meaningful incremental revenue, and higher component costs cannot overwhelm margins.

That is why buying immediately before tonight’s event could backfire even if Apple delivers what consumers expect.